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What Is Hedging?

Hedging is an insurance of a trade which comes into action when the original trade starts losing money. Hedging is a great way to protect your capital when trading or your portfolio as a whole.

Do you know that HIIs (High-Net-Worth Individuals) and DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) & FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) always hedge their portfolio against any odds. It does not matter they pay a price for hedging but they know very well the importance and necessity of hedging. They have crores at stake they are not fools to trade derivative naked (without hedge).

Options are a great hedging tool. The Institutional Investors use it perfectly to keep their account protected.

Hedging makes sure the losses if any are small and negligible. Institutional Investors DO NOT trade intraday, they are positional traders so they always use hedging to ensure smooth growth of their portfolio.

Its unfortunate that retail traders pay price for DIIs and HIIs hedging. Retail traders trade blindly while DIIs and HIIs take their money away.

Let me give you a simple example of hedging to help you understand how peaceful it can be.

Suppose you have a big portfolio of Nifty 50 stocks. More than 5 lakhs and they are in good profit but you do not want to sell. In that case how do you protected your profits? You can buy puts to protect a huge fall in Nifty. If your stocks fall, its obvious that the stocks in your portfolio will also fall. But since you have bought hedging you do not have to bother much. The put you bought will make you some money. But by chance Nifty does not fall the put will expire worthless. I hope you can understand that hedging comes into action only when your hard earned money is in threat of going away. Otherwise they keep quite.

But as in above example if stocks fall the person who has bought puts will make some money out of it and his loss will not be as big as someone else loss who did not hedge.

This is just a small example of how hedging can help you survive the volatility of the markets. Hedging is a must for positional traders. Without hedge you will not be able to save your capital if anything goes wrong in your trades. 2 or 3 big losses may wipe out your capital.

Therefore in the ever uncertain markets it is very important to learn hedging. You can do my Nifty option course to learn how to hedge properly options, futures and equities to make a monthly income.

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A lot of traders who call me to inquire about my course ask me this question after I tell them about the course – “I want to become a full time trader, I want to make trading my profession – is it possible?”.

Well the answer is yes, but there are certain criteria.

1. What experience you have in trading? 5 years or more is good.

2. Are you trading on tips or advisory service? If the answer is yes you will never become a full time trader. Tips/advisory service do not work and will never work in stock markets.

3. What knowledge you have in trading? Please note that this includes all – equity, options and futures. The mainstream trading. If you only invest in equities you can not become a full time trader because equities take time to make money. With derivatives you can make a monthly income, with equities you cannot. However it is very important to invest in stocks for long term as well.

4. Have you made profit trading at least over 10% a year consistently since the last 3 years? If the answer is no you cannot become a full time trader as of now.

5. How much money you have to trade? This I will explain later but with 1 lakh or 2 lakh you cannot become a full time trader.

Now lets get deep into this topic – what is the ideal time to become a full time trader.

Within days of opening a demat account, a trader starts dreaming of becoming a full time trader. Obviously its great to work from home but it isn’t that easy. You must be having some qualities to be a full time trader.

If you look at point 1 I have said that you must have some experience. Just because you have a trading account, you have bought a few options, done some future trade does not mean you can become a full time trader. To know something is very different than being an expert on something.

Assuming you have 10 years of experience but still trading on speculations or tips, you are still not experienced. An experienced person is someone who has the caliber to decide a trade and properly hedge it to insure it from risk. Even after the hedge he has a plan to execute and his success rate it above 60%. This kind of person is called an experienced person. He can have just 3 years of experience in trading but if he has the above qualities he can be a full time trader.

Note: My courses – Nifty & Bank Nifty can teach you hedging strategies. If you are interested you can contact me.

Another important part is risk management. In my experience I have seen that not many traders have any risk management capabilities. Even if you are a good trader you must have a sold risk management in place. Risk management is not limited to trading account only – I am telling about 100% financial risk management. This is a very complex topic, in fact I can write a book on it, but as of now all I am saying is you must have sold money management skills.

Some of the money management skills include:

  • How much profit you are looking for in a trade and what loss you are wiling to take.
  • What measures you have taken to limit your losses or limit your profits. Hedging, manual, system oriented etc.
  • What you want to do with your trading profits? Invest it back into the trading account or invest in long term stocks, or take out and keep in an FD account?
    Note: I take out profits and keep mostly in Reliance Liquid Fund – Direct Plan and ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund – Direct Plan with a Systematic Withdrawal Plan (SWP) as per my monthly needs.

  • Just because you are making money trading are you over-spending on luxuries not required?
  • Are you doing any investment for your retirement planning form the profits made from trading?
  • You can be very rich still you must not trade with money above 40 lakhs. If you have more than this its better to keep them in debt funds. Debt funds give slightly higher returns than Bank FDs and they are safe. They are better than Bank FDs because you can withdraw whatever you want (minimum 500) whenever you want. Unlike Bank FDs where you have to liquidate the entire Bank FD even if you want to withdraw Rs.1000 from it.

    There are other important things that you should know.

    What is your family monthly expenditure? Will you be able to make 20% more than that every month? If not you cannot become a full time trader as of now even if you are making profits.

    Suppose your monthly expenditure for your family is 30,000. Add 20% to it – this is equal to 36,000. So you should be able to make 36,000 pm to become a full time trader to support your family needs.

    With time as your monthly expenditure increases you must increase your portfolio size to make sure your per month profits also increases with needs.

    Note: It may take time to become a full time trader but you have to start somewhere. With my option course you can get a start and start learn hedging strategies and making a monthly income. If now you are losing money its better to stop losing and start making even if its 36% a year. At least after doing the course you will not be going down deep in debt. Once you start making profits you can accumulate more money to make a reasonable monthly income. You can enroll for my course here and let me know. I will start your course the same day you enroll.

    Look at these traders – they were losing money before they did my course but now they are happy they are doing good in trading and their account is growing fast. Some of them like Ravi have become excellent traders.

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    Note: From 2nd July 2018 onwards, SEBI has made it mandatory for both SPAN and exposure margin to be blocked in order to take and carry forward an overnight position. If it isn’t, margin penalty will be applicable. Click here for the circular from NSE.

    Your broker will now block both Span & Exposure margin. In some parts of India some brokers used to block only Span margin, so this rule was made. Now every derivative trader is on the same platform – earlier some traders had an advantage of paying less and making more but losing the same. Now they will also have to pay the same money (margin block) to trade futures and sell options.

    But according to the new rule if your account is going in the red (loss a.k.a MTM (Mark To Margin)) then at end of day your broker will block more money to make sure FULL Span & Exposure margin is blocked again for the position to continue overnight. But if your account does not have the money then you may have to pay a margin short penalty, and the risk management team may close the trade without informing you.

    Whatever new rules are being made they are forcing retail traders to either hedge their positions in derivative trading (which DIIs and HIIs always do) or stay out of the stock markets. Hedging is getting more important than ever. First lot size increase, then full SPAN and Exposure margin and then from Oct, 18 trading allowed from 9.15 to 11.55 pm. Without hedging you will not be able to survive in the markets for long.

    Margin Short Penalty Explained 2018

    As per SEBI regulations, margin shortage penalty is levied on overnight positions held in the trading account without sufficient margin. Please note that both SPAN and Exposure margin will be taken into consideration. Earlier only SPAN margin was taken into consideration for margin short penalty, but from July 2018 onward, both SPAN and Exposure margin will be taken into consideration.

    Note that For intraday positions (day trading) shortfall margin penalty is not levied. It is levied on Equity Derivatives, Currency Derivatives, and Commodity derivatives segments. (For currency derivatives both the SPAN and exposure margins have to be maintained, if not margin penalties will be applicable).

    Both SPAN & Exposure margin will be blocked.

    Let say you buy a future and your broker blocks SPAN & Exposure margin of 60,000.

    Assuming its a NRML (overnight carry forward position) and by 3.15 pm your MTM is 3000. Now the system will check if your account has 3000 or not. Let say your account has 3000 – then fine – I think that money will also be blocked. What they are trying is that both SPAN & Exposure margin should be there in your account else you pay a fine.

    Suppose there is a shortage of 3000 by the end of day, then either your RMS will close the trade or you have to pay a penalty.

    But in some cases it gets difficult for the RMS to close the position as there may not be any liquidity – in that case you will have to pay a penalty.

    Here is the margin short penalty:

    For less than 1 Lakh margin Or less that 10% of applicable margin short per day, penalty charge of 0.5% on the short money per day.

    For example your MTM is 5000 you will be charged 0.5% of 5000 that day which is Rs.25/-

    Next day if you make a profit it does not matter – you will still pay the margin short penalty.

    For margin short equals to Rs 1 lakh or more Or equals to 10% of applicable margin, penalty charge of 1.0% on the short money per day.

    So What You Should Do?

    Make sure you have extra money in your account so that you never pay a penalty. Keep at least Rs. 20,000 extra. And make sure your MTM never exceeds 50% of it – that is 10000. This will ensure you never pay a penalty and your broker does not close your tarde without informing you.

    Or, hedge your trades so that MTM is ever is very small. Hedging is better because the trade NEVER sees a big loss ever. Hedge ensures the losses or MTM if at all are small. Since the whole account MTM will be taken into account the MTM money can be reduced to 5k for small accounts.

    The Best way to keep your MTM (Mark To Margin) low in your trading account is to do hedging. If you hedge your position you may never see an MTM (Mark To Margin) over 5000 and you will escape the margin short penalty by just keeping 5000 extra in your account. This is huge money saved. You can learn hedging strategies in my course. For more information you can contact me.

    Hedging also ensures you can sleep peacefully in the night without worrying what will happen to your account the next day when markets opens.

    My course teaches proper hedging in options, futures and equities. Moving forward it is very difficult to survive in this market without hedging your trades. Call is yours.

    You can do my course and learn proper hedging strategies to make a monthly income. Stop taking losses now.

    Hope that helps – to save this margin short penalty keep at least Rs. 20,000 extra in you account and DO IT TODAY.

    I am trying to save your money and do not want you to pay a margin short penalty.

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    When there is no movement in Nifty it becomes very difficult for option traders to decide what direction to trade – in fact same for future traders. See this:

    Nifty 25-06-18

    Its like a small mountain – down, then up, then down, then up, but over all its just 26 points move – so which direction to trade?

    This is confusing for traders.

    This is the reason trading volume in derivatives drop when there is little movement in Nifty. By looking at the intraday chart most traders will buy puts only to see Nifty rising to hit stop loss and then fall.

    Call buyers will have similar fate.

    Its sad that in-spite of this traders keep trading on hope to see success.

    Here is one such trader who is my free newsletter subscriber since long but is still not willing to do my course because he believes 3% a month is too less so trying out technical. I do not believe technical analysis because technical analysis is past not future. The 3 or 10 red candles consistently, does not guarantee that next candle will also be red. Then in that case isn’t technical pure gambling? In fact I Googled for “person who made a lot of money by trading technical analysis” – the result was like what is technical analysis, will it make money etc. But no names were given in Google search.

    See how he is failing in technical too – though now he is slowly understanding the importance of hedging after probably losing money trading by technical indicators:

    Until and unless you have a plan that works and you have hedged your position properly all you are doing is gambling. If you want to continue gambling in the stock markets I have nothing to say. But if you want to start real trading with proper practice you can do my courses.

    Nifty is for beginner traders and bank nifty is for experienced traders. Since the support is for one year its better to do both the courses with a discount. Click here to know the fees and pay for the course.

    See this bank nifty intraday profits:

    After paper trade client trades one lot:

    Rs.208/- profit intraday. Results may vary for users

    Then he got exited and traded this:

    Took some risk and traded the bank-nifty aggressive strategy in Voltas and made a stellar profit of Rs.37,650/- in a single day. Results may vary for users

    I told him to calm down and take it slow – stock markets will not close tomorrow:

    So this:

    Rs.17,952.00 profit again in a single day. Results may vary for users

    Then this:

    Rs.18,192.00 profit again in a single day. Results may vary for users

    He is still doing great almost everyday.

    If you are a trader losing money my course will help you to make a start like above though it might take you sometime to send me such testimonials.

    But somewhere down the line you have to start.

    Nifty is for beginner traders and bank nifty is for experienced traders. Since the support is for one year its better to do both the courses with a discount of Rs.3000/-.

    Click here to know the fees and pay for the course.

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    In this post you will learn 10 rules of successful trading.

    Problems start from misconception of share market. It all starts with “Share Market is Gold – I will invest and become very rich very soon and leave my job”. Well dreaming is ok but over-dreaming is not.

    Its not the fault of a new investor or trader – the way things are marketed – its their fault – the media and people who get benefit from your trading like tip providers, trading software providers, high cost brokering firms etc.

    And yes some fault lies with people I mean you too – most of them even today believe that traders who have done technical analysis are laughing to the banks every day. They also believe that there is some magic where they can make 50k every month from 50k. This is simply not possible. But to make 50k a month they start losing 50k a month but still do not understand unless a big damage is done.

    I was having a chat with a trader who said that 3% a month is very less – technical analyst make 2000 everyday with 50,000.

    My next question was – please name that person I will pay him 25k to learn what he does.

    Silence…

    2k everyday with 50k is 44k a month (22 trading days a month) – this is a return of 88% a month. 88*12 = 1056% return a year… does it make sense?

    If you have something in mind – all you have to do is take out a calculator and see if what you have heard makes sense. If not – do not believe in any theory that does not support what you are not seeing on Earth.

    I agree some people may be doing very well trading options or futures – but they are less than 0.1% traders in the world. Ravi is one of them – but the question is can you reach that level? If yes how fast? Have a look at this:

    Rs. 16.26 Lakhs on Rs. 38 Lakhs margin blocked

    Rs. 16.26 Lakhs on Rs. 38 Lakhs margin blocked – 42.78% return in 5 trading days – Results may vary for users

    The above you are seeing is real trade results but exceptional. He is still doing very well but I am yet to find another Ravi. Yes some of my clients are doing very well but they are still not near Ravi.

    It’s a myth that you can double your money every year in stock markets – this even an excellent trader like Ravi is not able to do. So what makes you believe you can?

    Frankly there is not hidden formulae. To be successful trader you must have a good logic, proper hedging, patience and discipline. And there is more – in one financial year if you took 12 trades and DID NOT lose money – then welcome to the club of successful traders. Please note I am not talking about profits here – I am only talking about NOT LOSING Money in a total of 12 trades or an entire year with minimum of 12 trades. Then your next target should be 10% – 20% – 30% a year. Anything more than this – you have to do a lot of research and hard work. With my courses I can help you reach level one which is more than 25% a year – anything more you have to do your own research which Ravi did and succeeded.

    Read what you should have in you to be a successful trader and investor – the Top 10 Rules of Successful Derivative Trading:

    1. Time is Money:

    If you have decided to be a trader then get all the knowledge possible to set up your trades and start paper trading. Do not put money on the line if you are researching something. Do paper work or home work like you used to do in school. Once you get a good strategy start trading. Wasting time on speculative trading does not only destroy your money but your time also. The more you delay the more profits you are losing. The more time you are losing the more time you are letting go the power of compounding.

    2. Increase your trading income once you see success:

    You see 3% of one lakh is three thousand, but 3% of one crore is 3 lakhs. Can you see the difference? Percentage wise both are same but money wise 3k vs 3 lakhs. If you start with 1 lakh and start seeing success, bring more money to the table to increase your returns. Even if percent remains same, you will make more every month.

    Side note: If you are making more than 10,000 per month from trading – take out 20% of it to enjoy your success. Watch movies, eat in costly restaurant, go on a vacation etc. You see you should not leave all the money for compounding – just take out a small portion to enjoy your hard work else after some time you will lose interest in trading.

    3. Trading has nothing to do with bear of bull markets:

    Bear market is good for investing and bull market is good for booking profits but only for stock investors not traders. Remember the phrase “Buy when everyone else is selling”, by none other than Warren Buffett. This still stands good for investors but for trades time is short – expiry comes in one month so you cannot and should not take your trades based on bull or bear markets. A bull market or a bear market is not for one month – it runs for months or years. For example the 2007-08 bear market and then 2009-10 bull market. It took three years to complete a bull market and a bear market.

    So do not take your trades based on bull or bear market – take your trades based on your research.

    4. Look for yearly returns not intraday returns:

    It’s foolish that most traders start with Intraday without any research or plan and lose money almost every-day. They look at everyday return for fun. Everyday return is not important. A months return is important and more important is yearly return. You will certainly not be able to make profits in every trade but you must limit your losses to ensure you are in the game for long.

    5. Think 5-6 years from now not next month:

    Most traders want to get a return of two-three times in the next six months. They so not have patience to wait. You have started to invest and trade that’s fine but do not think your life will change in a month or six months. It will take about 5-6 years for your life to change. Be patient till that time but do not take the current time easy whether you are losing money or you are making money.

    Note your trades and study them everyday. You should write why you took a loss and why you took a profit. If you study your trades with time you will become a smart trader.

    6. Do not trade with all your money in one strategy:

    Strategies require a certain amount of money. If you find a good strategy that’s fine but its always better to find other strategies that work in different market situations so that you can divide your cash. In my Nifty and Bank Nifty course you will get strategies for both volatile and non-volatile market condition. The idea is to make sure your cash is divided into different strategies.

    This will keep you relaxed.

    7. Do not take a loan to invest:

    I have said this several times in my blog. Here is one article that explains it well.

    First get rid of your debts then invest in stock markets. If you trade with loaned money you will be under severe stress and you may not be able to perform at your best.

    Trade with the money that you can afford to lose to some extend not all.

    8. Trade in strategies that have limited risk:

    You must make sure that whatever strategy you are trading – it has limited risk. If you are trading positional futures and not hedging it then you are playing with fire. Future trading is leverage on top of that no hedge is financial suicide. You may not survive for long trading naked futures. You can learn future hedging in my course.

    9. Keep reading business news:

    Factors that affect stock market should be known to you. These factors are market movers. For example as soon as the Nirav Modi case came out, it was clear that PNB stock will fall. A good trader would have gone short in PNB with proper hedge and of course you know the result. Business news can help you take trading decisions. Keep one hour aside everyday for reading news. Please ignore what experts say – that is not news – I am talking about real business news – what has happened, not what experts are saying.

    10. Never repeat a mistake:

    If you repeat a mistake you will see the same result. Once you know your mistake write it down and never repeat it. Please note that occasional losses are fine but mistakes are not. Mistakes are like not taking a stop loss ever after you had defined a stop loss. Not taking profits in hope of higher returns. Trading without hedge etc.

    Hop you learned top 10 rules of successful derivative trading in this post.

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    It’s a myth that technical analysis works great in stock market trading. Technical Analysis is just a beautiful drawing of the past but not an assurance of the future. Otherwise all technical analysts would have been sitting in huge pile of cash trading the stock markets. But this is not happening.

    There was a time when I used to believe a lot on technical analysis but I saw that it had a success rate of only 50%.

    If you also trade on 5 min candle stick charts you will know what I am saying. TA is a beautiful presentation of what is happening in the markets but NOT what will happen in the markets.

    When I saw the success rate to be 50% then I thought what is the difference between speculative trading and technical analysis? To me they both are same. I know may be you will not agree with my views as you are hearing it for the first time in your life.
    I don’t know but maybe some guys are really good at it and are making a killing using TA. But they must have great methods. The real picture is, for most, Technical Analysis does not make money. And this I am saying after talking to at least 25 traders who are doing Technical Analysis in stock markets. 100% of them lost money using TA.

    Social Science Research Network – a research company based in US, did a research on individual traders doing Technical Analysis and found that most traders doing TA lost money. Here is the link.

    If you want to download the research report you can download it here.

    Here is the abstract:

    We find that individual investors who use technical analysis and trade options frequently make poor portfolio decisions, resulting in dramatically lower returns than other investors. The data on which this claim is based consists of transaction records and matched survey responses of a sample of Dutch discount brokerage clients for the period 2000-2006. Overall, our results indicate that individual investors who report using technical analysis are disproportionately prone to have speculation on short-term stock-market developments as their primary investment objective, hold more concentrated portfolios which they turn over at a higher rate, are less inclined to bet on reversals, choose risk exposures featuring a higher ratio of unsystematic risk to total risk, engage in more options trading, and earn lower returns.

    Anyway if you still want to learn technical analysis its your choice – but frankly you will get the same answer as mine. It works only 50% of the times. And if it works 50% of the times – the rest 50% of the time when you lose money it takes away whatever you made in the 50% of the profitable trades.

    In any case if you have to limit your unlimited loss you should learn proper hedging. And then there are strategies that are direction independent in my course which even a new trader can learn and start making monthly income.

    You are struggling to make profits trading because you are trying to make too much from trading. This is where you are doing a mistake. If you had made just 30% a year in last 4-5 years of trading you would have had a lot more money in your account than what you have today.

    You can do my course and learn strategies both conservative and aggressive to make trading profits. Low risk Low Returns to Low Risk High Return Strategies are there in Nifty and Bank Nifty Course.

    If others can learn and do good why can’t you?
    What traders say about this course.

    Course fees details is here.

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    In this article you will learn how to trade using the risk to reward ratio.

    Risk to Reward Ratio is the concept where a trader knows before taking a trade where to take a stop loss and where to take profits out.

    A novice trader never writes anywhere before taking a trade where to take a stop loss. However an experienced trader knows very well what risk he is taking in a trade and what reward he is expecting. An experienced trader will never move away from a decision he/she takes.

    Let me take an example of a Long Call. Let us assume that Nifty ATM CE is trading at 100. A novice trader will buy it “thinking / hoping” that Nifty will move up without realizing that options have time value that melts away with time if there is no move. They treat an option buy equal to futures buy which is not.

    However an experienced trader will write somewhere where he will exit the trade either profit or loss.

    Side-Note: I have seen new option trader averaging out option buy if the position is going in loss. IT IS VERY DANGEROUS TO AVERAGE OUT AN OPTION BUY IF IT’S GIVING LOSS. In fact if an option is making a profit you must not still buy more of it in hope of bigger profits. Once an option buy or sell is done you must not increase the lot size whatever happens. You may decrease the lots when the trade is on – its perfectly ok – but you must not increase.

    Before taking the trade write somewhere where you have to exit

    Taking a call where to take profits and where to take a stop loss is not as easy as you may think but with experience it gets easier.

    I have written here how to use the trailing stop loss method. This will help you to decide how to take stop loss.

    You see if you are trading with many lots you can take your time to take both trailing stop loss and trailing profits.

    Here is an example:

    Anil bought 5 lots options of XYZ stock at 50. Now its 55 he exited one lot. Four lots left, 5 points profit. At 60 another option sold. Three left and 15 points profit.

    Option is back to 50. Anil decides to sell two more at 50 and keep one. Sold off 2 more lots. One lot left and 15 points profit. Option is now 45. Anil takes a stop and takes a loss of 5 points.

    Trade over total profit = 15-5 = 10 points. Assuming 1 point equals Rs.1000/- which is quite common in stocks in India. His total profit stands at Rs.10,000/-.

    Assuming 500 goes away in brokerage and STT 0 still he is left with Rs.9500/-.

    Can you see a well-planned strategy can yield great results? If he did not take a stop loss at 45 and waited in hope that the option will reverse then he could have lost (15-45 = -30) Rs.30,000/- in a trade where he made more than 9k profit.

    I hope it is now clear that Risk to Reward Ratio is NOT what your software made a P&L graph for you. It’s not final – the Risk to Reward Ratio is what YOU DECIDE and NOT what a graph decides.

    Here is the Risk to Reward Ratio of a Buy Call Option – but reality is where a trader decides to exit. This P&L graph gives an illusion that option buy is an unlimited profit – many traders fall in this trap and do not book profits waiting for MORE profits because they fall for making an unlimited profit according to the P&L graph.

    Long Call Risk Reward P&L Graph

    But the fact is Long Call or Long Put is not unlimited profit – you have to decide both your risk and reward – failing which you may lose all your money in this trade.

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    One of the best ways to short stocks, nifty or banknifty is on a bad news. I am a great fan of bad news. See this chart of PNB after the news came out of the Nirav Modi scandal. The Punjab National Bank scam came to light on 14 February 2018, and since then it has been a downhill ride for the Indian Banking community especially PNB – Punjab National Bank.

    See the downhill chart of PNB from the news came out:

    PNB Stock Chart 13-Feb-18

    The downhill continues for months for PNB:

    PBN on 18-May-18

    It is almost certain that a stock will fall heavily when bad news hits the company. Resignation of a top manager, employee specific scandal, tax hiding getting caught (like Satyam), any illegal activity – even a small illegal activity will take the stock down by 5%.

    Remember the Axis Bank scandal during demonetization in 2016? See this how Axis Bank fell from 490 to 432 in about a month:

    Axis Bank 8-Nov-16

    Then it started to go up slowly.

    Basically when a bad news is hit it is almost certain that a stock will fall heavily. However when a good news hits, the stock may rise approx 5% only.

    Why this happens?

    Because fear of losing money spreads very fast and people take out their money as soon as possible without even reading the news properly. But when a good news has come in a company, people start reading the newspapers to verify the news, try to figure out the outcomes, start seeing business channels – by this time the smart investors (HIIs and DIIs) have already bought the stock in huge quantity – they know very well the late comers (retail traders like you) will join the party at the top of the hill – this is the time they start to sell.

    Who loses? Retail investors.

    However if you track how a stock behaves to bad news vs good news you will see that impact of bad news is much higher than the impact of good news.

    The scandal of Punjab National Bank broke out on 14 February 2018, but the stock has not yet come out of the shock of the bad news till now.

    PNB stock falling since the news of scandal

    So when to sell a stock?

    As soon as a bad news hits the company. Read newspapers looking for bad news in any company and see if there is derivative trading allowed there. If yes do not waste time in shorting the stock. Of course this can be risky. If the management comes out with an announcement to counter allegations, then the stock may rebound within seconds of announcement. Therefore it is very important to hedge your traders to make sure that the risk is minimized.

    In my Nifty and Bank Nifty course you will find strategies where you can learn hedging and also get strategies to make monthly income consistently without worrying too much about your money and the direction of the stock. Wherever the stock goes you can make a profit.

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    Learn the psychology of option traders and learn why they lose money.

    There are certain days when Option Buyers make small profit and Option Sellers lose HUGE.

    Look at this graph of Nifty on 07-June-18:

    NSE 7-June-18

    There is no stopping.

    What does an option buyer think?

    Wow huge profits – buy at 10 am and sell at 3 pm.

    But what happens in reality? Buy at 10 am and sell at 10.30 am. A very small profit and then regret of leaving money on the table.

    And what happens to option seller?

    Sell at 10 am on the hope that Nifty will fall down – but do not exit at 11 or 12 or 1 or 2 because of the HOPE that Nifty will fall and they can exit in profit. Ultimately exit at 3-3.25 pm with a huge loss.

    When you become a buyer you take a small profit and exit and regret later leaving more profits on the table and when you become a seller you take huge losses in hope of reversal.

    This life of a trader when he trades without a plan, without hedge, pure speculative trading or worst way to trade – take tips.

    If you keep trading like this you will NEVER succeed as a trader.

    You must learn to trade with a plan, learn to hedge and take help from a mentor to trade correctly.

    You must not lose money to make huge money – that is the MOST IMPORTANT PART OF TRADING OR INVESTING.

    Today morning I got a call from someone who lost 7 lakhs due to tips providers in a single day. If you will not learn trading yourself you will go to tip providers and lose even more money.

    So if you really want to be a good trader and trade without stress and make monthly income you can do my course.

    Nifty Conservative Course is for beginners:

    Bank Nifty is for experienced traders.

    Fees can be paid here. There is a discount if you do both the courses.

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    In media, news channels and among traders there goes a lot of buzz on what will be decision of RBI policy, its impact on stock markets, what trade to take based in RBI policy – go long or short, buy calls or puts, which stock to buy or short etc.

    Whenever someone gets a strategy they start back-testing forgetting that a strategy can be made based on back test, but can you really future-test a strategy? You cannot. For that you have to trade that in live markets.

    I personally do not believe in back-testing but for those who believe one of my course subscribers did a back-test on my Conservative Nifty Strategy for 2 years and found it too be superb. He is an experienced Technical Analyst and Full Time Trader. He did my course in 2015, so is it working now? Yes Course Testimonials of Year 2018 are proof of that. Three years in a row if a strategy is working in live markets then it will work in future too.

    My strategies work because they are non-directional in nature and are properly hedged. Non-directional takes care of avoiding speculative trading, trying to be rich overnight and hedging takes care of restricting the losses. Hedging takes out the fear factor and non-directional takes out the greed in you.

    Both combined obviously will have an effect for a life time and then you can pass this knowledge to your kids as well.

    Coming back to the topic – it is quite strange that no one is interested in back-testing what happens to stock markets when RBI policy is declared. The result is known to everyone – nothing major happens to Index at least, barring a few stocks here and there – yet traders in India take too many speculative trades on this day.

    Banking stocks will see increased volumes on the RBI policy day. And India VIX will increase. Here is a screenshot of India VIX on 06-June-2018 – see that it has slightly increased:

    India VIX on 6-June-18 1.29 pm

    There is a chance that India VIX will drop once the RBI policy is announced. This is the only common factor that happens on any major policy decision day either by RBI or by the Government of India.

    And here is screenshot of NSE on RBI policy day 06-June-18:

    NSE on 06-June-2018

    Can you see it looks like just other normal trading day.

    Yes it is only the General Budget that moves the markets for a short time, otherwise other news if not major – it really does not have any major impact on the stock markets. It may have a minor impact but should it really matter to you as a trader?

    You can back test and see what I am saying is true, yet traders increase their speculative traders on the RBI policy day.

    Let media do what they want to do, but you as a trader, its better you avoid such noise else you will damage your trading account.

    Hope you have learned something from this article. Speculative trading either on a major news day or a normal day will do nothing to your trading account except adding losses.

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