Date: 30-Mar-2017

Today is expiry day of Mar 2017 options. If anyone is trading March 2017 options or futures please close all positions before 3.15 pm today, do not let it expire In The Money – close it.

If your options expire in the money you will pay a heavy fees.

Read the article here:
Close Futures And Options Before Expiry Day to Save Securities Transaction Tax STT

Look what even novice traders tell about my course:

Course 1 – For those who trade options and futures:
https://www.theoptioncourse.com/learn-how-to-trade-options-for-monthly-income/

Your Results May Vary

Course 2 – For those who are or want to be long term investors:
https://www.theoptioncourse.com/how-to-invest-well-and-retire-rich/

There are a lot of reasons I do not give tips and you should also not take tips in stock trading. When you pay for tips you have no idea who is generating these calls so why pay? I still fee traders just want tips because there is no hard work involved.

Which person on this Earth has ever made a lot of money taking tips in stock markets or any other business? No one.

Then why do you think you will prove everyone wrong by taking tips, make a lot of money and create history?

I am surprised by the number of queries I get on giving tips, even after writing many times in my site that please avoid taking tips.

Actually in my case it is exactly opposite.

Tips providers send unsolicited SMS and emails to get tips. And sometimes they call also. Almost every day, they send me SMS and call me, even though my number is FUL DND (Do Not Disturb). I do not know from where they get stock traders numbers. It is obvious once they call, I do not talk to them but do not cut the phone connection. After a few minutes of talking they keep saying Hello, Hello, and when they see that I am not responding they keep the phone down.

On top of that, I have quite a lot of time received emails to buy database of 10,000+ traders for mere 250 rupees which I politely deny.

That’s why I say my case is different. In other cases companies call traders, in my case traders call me. Feels good but sorry I do not give tips.

Let me make things clear. From day 1 this website started, I have given a promise to myself that I WILL NEVER DO ANY ILLEGAL activity to make money from the site. I have a clear disclaimer saying that I do not provide tips.

If you compare my site to others you will not find a single genuine testimonial in their site. Anyone can type something, write a name and a city and show it as testimonial. If you see my testimonials page you will see that these are either emails from my clients or it’s a WhatsApp message. I hide their numbers and email to keep their privacy intact, else my customers will fear sending me an email or chatting me on WhatsApp.

There are a lot of people who told me if I can give them a few numbers of my clients living in their city they will pay me. I say sorry not possible. If you do not trust me even after reading my blog then please do not pay. Those who took the course are happy today.

I have been approached by many firms to buy my database of free and paid subscribers for a fee. As soon as I read that email I mark it as SPAM and delete.

Even if someone pays me one lakh rupees to get that database I would do the same, just mark the email as SPAM and delete.

Through this website I have tried hard to stop people from taking tips as even I lost close to 7 lakhs or more taking tips, but unfortunately I do not think many listen to me.

Here is one person who wanted tips. Got this message today:

I DO NOT GIVE TIPS

Here is an email from a person who lost more than a lakh taking tips from a reputed company. Name of the company withheld for obvious reasons.

Here is my reply:

Here is the email of Mr. Manas:

Sir,

I am going to disclose you regarding my bitter experience in trading. It may be a case study for you. I have been trading since 2015. At first I was doing trading with my own effort and booked only loss. Then I took help of one advisory company i.e (Name Withheld) with paying Rs.10,000/ for three months. After this my loss increased instead of profit. Till now I have lost almost 1,50,000/-(more than one lakh and fifty thousand). Still I am trading with option for an expectation of recovery of my lost money.

I have already gone through your Five days free course. Still I need your sincere guidance in this regard.

Sir, you can feel my position after going through the above said bitter experience. So can I expect your course will be helpful for me to lift from the drowning situation. I also expect one day this writing of me would be posted in your site after becoming a successful trader.

With high expectation of your sincere and timely guidance.

Yours faithfully
Manas

Here is my reply to him:

Hi Manas,

You are luckier than me. I lost 7 lakhs trading with my own knowledge-less, speculative trading, and tips providers then turned to research.

What you will get is well researched strategies. It has been working well since 2015, so please do not worry.

I do not give tips at all as I am against it.

I think you must have seen the testimonials in my site, not a single one is fake.

So do not worry and do my course. I hope you are making money in your job due to education not tips so please think the same in stock markets.

Best Regards,
Dilip Shaw
Learn Conservative Strategies at Your Home and Trade Peacefully:
http://www.theoptioncourse.com/learn-how-to-trade-options-for-monthly-income/
Please Like my website’s FaceBook Page:
https://www.facebook.com/theoptioncourse
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Thank You

Conclusion

When you take tips you lose money, you do not learn anything, you waste time, and you get frustrated.

In view of the above avoid taking tips.

This one question does rounds in every traders mind especially those who do not have much money to trade. They keep reading everywhere traders making huge money trading and they get inspired and want to make the same amount of money.

In fact a lot of traders have asked me this question a lot of times. Sir, can I take a loan and trade your strategies.

My answer is always NO. Then they ask why? My answer is pretty simple. Do not look at the profits you will make, more important than that is will you be able to trade in peace of mind?

But here is one of customers who did the course recently saw the profit potential and took a loan of Rs. 2 lakh and is trading the non-directional strategy.

Your Results May Vary

This is the power of properly hedged non-directional trading. Though I must have told him not to take a loan as it increases stress this person saw the benefits and took a loan.

Most people do not know or forget that stock trading is a business, it is not a job or just another way to make money. It is pure business where buy and sell takes place. Stock market investments are subject to market risk also just like any other business, only difference is that the entry level to this business is pretty easy. Anyone above the age of 18 can enter this business. Now days you can open a free Demat trading account in a lot of companies. In fact we keep seeing these ads everywhere.

The real reason why I am against taking a loan and trading is that you have an obligation. I see that in Mar 2017 personal loan interest rates currently is anywhere from 12% a year to 20% a year. This is where you will trade in panic and I do not like trading in panic. I want to trade in peace of mind.

So if you are making more than the interest on the loan you have taken its a personal decision to take a loan to trade or not. But be very sure that you are making more than the loan interest rate every year from trading. If you are not making more than the interest rate on the loan do not take a loan and trade. If you make more than the interest rate on the loan, then the decision is entirely yours.

You must include the stress you will get to pay back the monthly installment of the loan. If you can conquer stress and make more than the interest rate on the loan then you may decide to take a loan and trade, but do not take too much loan.

But if you cannot trade in stress and are not making more than 15% in trading every year then please avoid taking a loan to trade.

I am very happy that my customers are doing very well in trading. They are making much more than they have paid which is very good.

If you want to pay for the conservative options and hedged future course please pay here.

Learn what hedge can do in this post. Mainly it reduces losses to a large extend and keeps the trader at peace without worrying much about the movement.

The benefits of hedging properly is immense if you are a trader, especially a future or option trader.
It kicks in when the traders is suppose to make a huge loss. See this how this traders loss was reduced by 50% when the trade went wrong.

Your Results May Vary

However sometimes even if wrong the directional trades makes a profit.

Your Results May Vary

This is how the conservative trading course will benefit you. You not only learn strategies but you learn some great hedging techniques to save your principal money. This will make you a better trader for life.

You can pay for the course here.

Learn how to make top rules of stock investing which great investors followed. These rules will help you to become good investor in the long term. Here I will discuss some important rules that the top investors like Warren Buffett followed to make huge income from stock markets. I offer a course on long term investing to retie rich, it is obvious nothing from the course is written here.

Make A Set Of Rules After Experience And Stick To Them

If you do research on successful investors you will find that they made a set of rules and followed them for the rest of their lives. They never deviated from the set of rules whatever happened to markets. These rules were made after a thorough research for years spending thousands of dollars not just sitting in an AC room and looking at charts.

People like Buffet never looked at charts but they looked at current valuations of the stock vs the probability of future valuations. If they were attractive he bought the stocks. Charts do not and cannot predict future valuations, therefore he never bothered about what the charts said.

How to make the rules?

Your initial blunder investing and mistakes you did in investing teaches you a lot. These mistakes thought a lot about setting rules of trading and investing to me too.

You jumped in stock markets trading as soon as your demat trading account was opened, dreaming big. It’s obvious you did a lot of mistakes initially. Make a set of rules on what worked and what did not work, when you traded.

Then do some more research on the set of rules before finalizing them.

Another way to define set of trading rules to ask people who are successful trading and follow them. Some of them give courses as well. Before doing any course you must see testimonials of real clients who have done their course and are doing well or not. If they have a website, their website itself is a good proof of the knowledge they have and their capabilities as a trader.

There is nothing wrong in paying a course provider to do a good course. It takes their time to help you that’s why there is a charge. But the course fee should be affordable and reasonable. Or you can do research yourself. A course saves your time and money to do research.

It took me more than 2 years and 3 lakhs to make this conservative strategies course. Since its your money I leave it to you if you want to do my course or not. You can see testimonials and decide yourself.

Patience Is Important

When I was a intraday day trader I was very impatient. As soon as the trade got completed, I used to keep looking at the trade to see whether it was making a profit or not. If it was not making a profit I used to take a stop loss within 5 minutes.
The above is not trading, its gambling. There is less than 1 percent chance that a gambler makes money. Obviously I too lost money.

If you are an impatient trader you will never make money.

Dennis Gartman, a very successful investor once said, “Be patient with winning trades, be enormously impatient with losing trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing if we are ‘right’ only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large“.

If you are impatient it is better to hedge your trades. Hedging makes sure your losses are capped, as a result over a period of time your profits exceed losses. My course has strategies which are fully hedged to cap losses.

Read what he said carefully, there is a high chance that you too do the same mistake in your trading career therefore you lose money. 95% investors make this mistake and lose money.

Let wining trades run. Do not sell as soon as you see profits coming. On the other hand br very strict with your stop loss.
Whatever stop loss you have set, be impatient as soon as the stop loss is hit and exit the trade.

Good traders are ok with losing some money but are not at all ok with losing a lot of money in a single trade.

The money you make in winning trader must far exceed the losing trade loses

Warren Buffett – The Legendry Investor of All Times Said This – “It’s Far Better to Buy a Wonderful Company at a Fair Price than a Fair Company at a Wonderful Price“.

I personally follow this since the day I read it. Another great thing he said was:

“Buy When Everyone is Selling and Sell When Everyone Is Buying“.

I follow this as well.

Mr. Buffett talks, world markets move based on his words. In fact governments appointed persons managing finances of a country leave everything aside to listen to what Warren Buffett says. His words are so powerful.

The letter to his investors are included in college finance classes in the largest and most prestigious universities in US and many other countries.

His basic principles of Investing is:

1. When evaluating a company, look at the quality of the company and the price. He mostly used to see the company’s balance sheets, listen to conference calls and the way management worked. After this he used to evaluate the price of the stock.

If the company looked good, he bought it. Price for him was secondary.
If the company looked bad, he never bought it even if the price of the stock was cheap.

Bill Gross a Fund Manager says, if you like a stock do not put more than 10% of your investment capital on it.

However here is where I differ slightly explain in my invest well course.

Diversification is Good, but too much diversification is not.

Some of your chosen stocks give great opportunities to buy. Always keep some money on hold to invest in these stocks as soon as you get the opportunity.

Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal – an investor from Saudi Arabia and founder of Kingdom Holding Company once said, “We’re getting hurt, but I’m a long-term investor“.

How true is that. Let us go back to 2008 when recession stuck stock markets all over the world and 99% people backed out of stock markets making huge losses. I was too one of them.

But just imagine people such as Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, he am sure may not have taken out all his investments, in fact would have bought more especially those companies that were high in quality. Today he must be making millions of profits.

Most of the investors who lost a lost of money in that period must have still not received their money back. He has a lot of real estate investments in India as well. Not sure how his real estate business is doing.

Carl Icahn, a big investor in companies such as Time Warner, Yahoo never listens to his friends or brokers or tip providers. He once said, “You learn in this business, if you want a friend, get a dog.”

Indirectly he is saying do not listen to your friends as far as investing is concerned. Its is not a personal thing. It is good to have friends for social gatherings and fun but it is better to avoid their advice on investing.

Carlos Slim, also a great investor looked for investing in companies with a great growth potential in future. Like what Warren Buffett did with Coca Cola – his biggest investment till date.

No one was willing to buy Coca Cola, but Buffett bought and made millions.

Carlos Slim says that do not look what is happening now, instead try to figure out what may happen in the future to this company.

Basically he used to invest in mid-cap and small-cap companies.

Conclusion:

It is always good to follow legendary investors.

After a lot of research I have made a course on long term investing and financial management. You can read about the course here.

Date: 15-Mar-2017

Read problems of directional traders when a trend is over.

Nifty At All Time High What It Means?

Nifty is at all time high, and I am sure most directional traders must be divided in the issue of doing buy or sell.
Here is where psychology of directional traders gets confused.

1. Some directional traders are thinking this: Nifty will go even higher because BJP has won people mandate. Obviously they are buying Nifty or Stocks.

2. Some contradictory directional traders are thinking this: Nifty has hit all time high, I really do not think it can go even higher as a lot of traders will book profit. Let me take a contrarian bet, let me sell stocks or Nifty.

3. Technical Analyst: Oh all beautiful charts are signalling a buy, lets buy.

4. Speculators directional traders: I think most of them will be on a buy as they love to go with the trend.
Here is where they are not trading but gambling.

The UP election results has already been factored in, there is nothing more left now markets will do what most traders will do.
And what most traders are doing? Speculating – 50% on the buy, 50% on the sell. As you can see Nifty not moving at all.

Nifty at 2.29 pm on 15-Mar-2017

All Call buyers are getting a headache. INDIA VIX (volatility), has fallen taking down the premium they paid to buy calls, but Nifty is just not going up.

All Put buyers are also getting a headache. INDIA VIX (volatility), has fallen taking down the premium they paid to buy puts, but Nifty is just not going down.

What about Future traders?

Same as option buyers or sellers, they just do not know what will happen.

In any case the in the recent Nifty rally 50% of the Futures buyers made money and 50% of them lost? Why? Because those who sold lost and paid money to those who bought Futures.

As you can see directional traders are living a divided life. Some months profits some months loss, but in most cases losses are more than the profits. This happens for years until they quit trading.

If you are also a directional trader please do not live in the hope that one day or one month will recover all your losses. That day rarely comes. On top of that you must also add the money lost due to fixed deposit that you could have done on that money year on year.

Which means compound the losses with 8% per year that you could have made by doing a fixed deposit.

If at all you make a profit, it must beat all the losses and make at least 15% per year on the lost money only then can you say you made a profit, on trading else even if you are making 5% per year on trading, you are actually losing money.

Case with non-directional traders with proper hedging is totally different. History is proof that 70-80% of the times there is no trend in the stock markets. And when there is trend only 50% of directional traders lose money.

If history is proof that 70-80% of the times there is no trend in the market, can you change the future? No one can, that’s the reason I became a strict non-directional trader. See benefits yourself.

I do not care, neither am bothered where Nifty is heading, all I care is how much profit I am making. Means is not important to me, ends are important.

Conclusion:

Being a directional trader is a very difficult job and most of them burn their fingers every day. Non directional trader burn their fingers rarely and do not live on the edge like directional traders. In my experience it is better to be a non directional trader than a directional trader trying to make too much money but actually end up losing it.

Exit Polls have predicted victory of BJP. If this comes true there is a chance of Nifty opening gap up on Tuesday. But how much gap up? No one knows.

But in many instances exit polls have been proved wrong. So what happens if BJP looses? Nifty will open gap down on Tuesday. But how much gap down? No one knows.

This where speculators lose money.

I am sure some 50% traders will put their hard earned money on the line in the long straddle trade.

If no move comes and VIX dropped, they are set to lose money.

Keep in mind that these are the times when speculators are betting on heavily. I think per trader the money on risk will be Rs. 50,000. And average loss will be 50%. So just in a matter of days 50% of traders money will be lost.

Disclaimer: The above is a pure guess as per my experience. Unfortunately there is no data monitoring of total money made a lost in a day. Only data monitoring is about trades done not who lost and who won. So there is no way to know total money made for how many traders and total money lost for how many. Data is only open for open interest. So the above is a pure guess on what happens when traders speculate trading or take a gamble.

That does not mean we should not trade during these days. This is the reason the directional strategy is there in my course. In the event in a loss two things happen:

1. Loss is limited and minimized, and
2 .There can be a profit even if the direction the trader takes is wrong. Yes you read that right. Even if your view is wrong you can make money.

See this:

WhatsApp Testimonial on 24-Aug-2015 the day Nifty Fell by 500 points for Directional Futures Trade of my course – It was Futures Buy – The trade still made money – Results may vary for users

His view was wrong yet he made profits. How many times do you make money when you traded a future or option and went wrong on your prediction and yet made money?

My guess is not even once as how can you make money if the trade went against you? Yes it is possible. How it is possible is written in my course.

Conservative Options & Futures Trading Course – Directional and Non-Directional

Do not forget you get 6 months support and paid emails to trade the strategies, for a one time payment.

You can pay here using credit card.

Read how trading without knowledge can take all your profits away and even your principal amount.

A few months back I got this email from one of my potential customers:

Dear Mr Dilip,

I have read the articles in your website and all the emails that you have sent to me for the past 5 days which were very informative and educative. They were very useful and soothing also.

I was doing delivery trading as a long term investor from 2003 and till 2007 I had earned Rs 4.24 lakhs as profit. In 2012, I entered into day trading and till date I have lost Rs 2.70 lakhs through it. Six months before some devil worked on my mind and I entered into Options trading without any strategy and lost Rs 1.12 lakh till date. All those money could have been saved by me had I gone through your educative articles earlier.

My balance amount with my broker have shrunken to Rs 30,000 and it seems I have to add some 50,000 to undertake your course.
So, I will contact you on joining your course after 5 or 6 months.

I thank you very much for taking efforts and spending time to educate the so called greedy investors like me.

Selvamani

Here is the screenshot of his email:

From 4 Lakhs to 30 Thousand Rupees Loss

This is what happens with traders who have made money on either luck, fluke or got lucky taking tips. Over a long period of time neither luck or fluke nor tips can help you make money in stock markets or any other business.

Luck and fluke are temporary, knowledge is permanent.

Let the above not happen to you. Let greed not conquer you take away all your profits or increase your losses. He has not mentioned his principal amount. i am sure his losses are not just 4.2 lakhs it is much more than that if principal is included. Assuming he was lucky and doubled his money in 4 yours his loss is:

4.2 lakhs + 42. lakhs – 30000 = 8.4 lakhs – 30000 = 8.10 lakhs loss.

If you have made even 1 lakh loss do my option and future trading course today. The course fee is 6% of your loss or even less. Control your loss and do the course today. You can get the payment details here.

Date: 3-March-2017

Please read my yesterdays article: Markets are Looking A Bit Stretched.

The highest it reached yesterday was 8985, then a fall.

See this NSE close 02-Mat-2017:

Nifty Close 2-Mar-2017

Right now it is at 8874 (11.30 am, Date: 30-March-2017). This has happened earlier too.

Read this:

8000 a big support for nifty comes true

Even though I feel fall will not be sharp, so it is better to trade non-directional strategies. You can learn non-directional strategies in my conservative options course.

The idea is to trade in the correct way with proper hedge and not go by what science or astrology says about the markets.

Stock Market And Options Trading Is Not Astrology or Science

Neither Science Or astrology has anything to do with Markets.

I read a lot of websites daily on stock markets. Most of them said 8950 is a very strong level for Nifty to cross. If it crosses then there will be a sharp breakout on the upper side which may take Nifty up to 9200.

But as you can see the ground reality was totally different. Nifty does not know the difference between 8950 and 6950, it is just a software to manage trades. It can neither push itself higher nor push lower. It can only do what the traders do that is all.

If trading was science technical analysis would be a subject of specialization in engineering colleges. Fact is it is not. Stock market trading is not science. Of course there are some technical terms that are used to define what it is – like support, resistance, PE ratio etc. But trading is not science, its a completely different game altogether.

Traders mind set and Economy of a Country Has to Do with Markets

Some people go by astrology to trade. Really? What has the position of The Sun, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune or Pluto has to do with stock markets? Nothing.

Their positions, shapes or sizes cannot do anything to stock markets. Please do not trade according to astrology.

Astrology trading is same as speculative trading. Do not follow Astrology Trading.

One person called me yesterday and said he will pay me today. When I asked why, he said because tomorrow will be 03-03, an auspicious day according to astrology because it is 3 and 3.

I am sorry if you are reading this but frankly 3-3 makes no sense as far as stock markets are concerned. If it was something personal then fine I am ok, but if the thinking was that astrology will help you to make money in stock markets, then no you are wrong my dear trader.

Please do not take it negatively, I am only saying what my experience says.

When you pay for my course you not only help yourself, but help me to keep working hard to keep writing and helping other gain trading knowledge through my blog, It is obvious my time does not come for free neither money to keep this site up and running.

So thanks to all who have paid for my course, I will keep writing as along as possible in the site.

Payment detail for my course is here.

Conservative Option Course Details is Here.

Happy Trading Everyone.