Read to know how to invest in stocks and invest the way Warren Buffett invested in stocks.

Indian stock markets are down more than 10% from recent high, this is a great time to invest in stocks. In future also remember that:

Whenever there is more than 10% fall in major stock index in your country, just get in and buy great stocks in SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) method.

Since Indian stock markets have fallen a lot it is a great time to buy stocks. For long term investors and non-directional traders this is the best time to make profits. India’s top stocks are at a great level to collect for the long term.

It is always a great idea to research stocks which have the capability to enter the stock market index. In India the most popular stock index is Nifty. Here is the list of top 50 companies that make Nifty. It is highly recommended that you invest in the best 4 stocks from different sectors that are in the top 50 list. When your country’s stock exchange has already hand-picked the stocks for you why do further research? They have a very strong selection criteria to pick stocks that can make to this list, then why bother about other stocks?

Some of the big giants that you can buy in the SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) mode are Infosys, HDFC, SBI, L&T, ONGC, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries. These are strong companies and have fallen a lot. Please note that this is not a recommendation to buy these stocks. I am only giving you ideas to research on these stocks. Please do your own research and invest as per your capability. Also remember that stock markets investments are subject to market risk, so please thoroughly research before investing in any of the above stocks.

What is SIP Method of Investing?

SIP is known as Systematic Investment Plan. SIP is highly popular with Mutual Fund Investors, because Mutual Fund industry has advertised Systematic Investment Plan in a great way – in news papers, TV, magazines, websites, emails etc. Therefore Mutual Fund Investors know about SIP very well and automate the whole process and make a lot of money. I am mutual fund investor too.

It is really strange that stock investors, not just in India, but in the world are not much familiar or interested in investing in stocks in the SIP method.

One reason is that our brokers do not advertise investing stocks in SIP method. They just tell us to buy as much as we can. Because the more you buy, the more money they make. Then what happens is known to the investor only, brokers are least bothered because they have made money, why should they bother about their investors?

Another reason is Greed – a traders biggest enemy. Most stock investors think it will take months or years to make 10% on a small amount so why invest in phases? They invest millions of rupees in one go as soon as they get a green signal from their brokers, and then scratch their heads when they see the stock falling down.

Once they see a loss of 20% or more they exit. It is strange that after they exit, the stock starts to move up. This makes them more frustrated.

This is not the correct process to make money from investing in stocks.

Do not forget that unlike derivatives stocks do not have an expiry date. Big companies are here to stay forever.

The best investor of all times Warren Buffett made a lot of money investing in good company stocks. In 20 years he went on to become the richest man in the world investing in stocks.

But all over the world you will see many stock investors losing millions investing in stocks.

Why they cannot copy what Warren Buffett did? The reasons are pretty simple:

Date: Dec 21, 2016

8000 Is a big support For Nifty because when it breaches a psychological level, greedy traders come in and start buying stocks to take Nifty high.

If you refer my previous emails you will see that I had written that 8000 is a big support for Nifty. It is very hard for Nifty to break 8000 on the downside because there is no big negative news except demonetization that the market has already factored in. Moreover greedy traders come in and start buying stocks to take Nifty high.

The reason why it is not going up fast in spite of US stock markets hitting all time high is the liquidity is low. The retail traders are busy taking money out from the banks and put food on the table. Right now getting and buying the essentials of living a life is more important than investing money in stock markets.

Once this demonetization effect gets over people will once again start investing in stock markets. I do not feel that day is very far as now days you do not see long queue in the banks.

Until the cloud does not get over there is going to be no trend in the markets. The best trade to do now is the non-directional strategies in my course.

It is really a tough time for directional traders and I am sure they must be losing money now as there is no trend at all in markets. In fact if you look back you will see that 80% of the times there is no trend in the markets.

So non-directional traders make money 80% of the times and directional traders make and lose money 20% of the times.

Why Most Traders Then Do Directional Trades Only?

Because most traders think only way to make money in stock markets is to trade the direction. I am sure more than 80% just do not know that there is something called non-directional trades that makes money when Nifty just does not move much.

Another reason is greed. Some of them know there are non-directional trades but it makes less money though safer than directional, but unfortunately greed takes over and to make more money in less time try the directional trades and lose money.

It is only after losing lakhs and sometimes crores they stop trading.

Those who have done my course non-directional trade Strategy 1 is the best to do right now. Keep looking at profits according to the course and exit when you reach the desired target.

Learn why interest rates affects the stock markets and how to be aware of them as a trader.

Lots of people do not know that interest rates do affect the stock markets. In this article you will learn why interest rates affects the stock markets and also the premium of options.

What Is Interest Rate?

Whenever you take a loan from a bank you have to pay them extra money for the money they lend to you. Or if you pay via credit card and do not pay back the money on time then you have to pay a fine plus some interest on the borrowed money.

The extra money you pay is decided on the interest rate to lend money.

In simple terms let say A borrows money from B a sum of Rs. 100 on the condition that after one year A has to give back Rs. 110 (100 + 10) to B. In this case the interest rate is 10% on the borrowed sum for one year.

Why should A pay an interest rate to B?

This is nothing but the cost of borrowing someone else money because, why should someone give his money to someone else for free? For that the borrower needs to pay a price depending on the interest rate decided.

In stock markets no one borrows money but still interest rates does affect the stock markets.

Recently there was a big news on FED interest rate hike. Interestingly traders all over the world were waiting for the news but others were not so interested. We will shortly know why Interest rates affects the stock markets.

In the US banks borrow money from the Federal Reserve Bank to do business and pay an interest rate to Federal Reserve Bank. If FED increases interest rate, the cost of borrowing money from FED will increase and it is obvious that these interest rate increase will be passed on to the consumers. In effect all loans like mortgages, personal and business loan rates will increase. Since the interest rates will increase on loans, their demand will go down.

When their demands goes down, the system will have less money to buy things. When the system will have less money to buy things, demand will be less than supply. This will obviously lower the cost of products and services in the markets or keep them stable.

This is how central banks all over the world control Inflation. In US central bank is Federal Reserve Bank, in India it is the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

What Happens When Interest Rates Are Raised By Central Banks

In the very short term not much is affected. But over the long run the affects can be seen.

Borrowing money from the Central Banks becomes costlier by the banks, therefore liquidity of money in the system goes down. Why? Because when borrowing money becomes costlier banks cannot pay the interest from their pockets, they will pass it on to the consumers. This affects an increase in the interest rates in mortgage loans, credit cards, personal loans, car loans, business loans and other kinds of loans. Therefore both individuals and businesses are affected.

When loans gets costlier both individuals and businesses borrow less money from banks.

When businesses are affected they will again raise the price to their products or services to consumers to remain profitable.

Do not forget that demand of products does not goes down drastically as people have to buy these products to continue living. Although due to less cash in the system and costlier products, the demand of the products does goes down to some extent. Lower demands does affect businesses revenues and profits.

When Central banks increase interest rates, it becomes difficult for businesses to borrow more money to expand their business. They start borrowing less, therefore the speed of growth of businesses also goes down.

Over the long term, businesses borrowing less money brings down the stock prices down of these companies. We will read shortly how.

Therefore, businesses are indirectly and directly affected by an increase in the central bank rates.

If rates are low – more business loans, more business and more profits, if rates are high – less loans and less business and less profits.

How Increase or Decrease in Central Bank Rates Affects Stock Prices

When businesses revenues and profits is affected it is obvious that the stock prices of these businesses also goes down as the profits do not meet expectations of the markets.

Retail investors trade in speculations but this is not the case with HNI (High Net-worth Individuals), and DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) like mutual funds. These people have a lot of money to risk, they cannot speculate and trade.
Their first priority is the fundamentals of the company.

One of the best methods of valuing a company is to see expected future cash flows from that company compared to present cash flows. Future cash flow comes from the expected growth of a company. When they see that a company may not be able to expand fast and may slow their growth they become skeptical to invest in that company.

When they see that the future situation does not show a great picture for a company, they invest less in that company or do not invest at all to reduce risk. This obviously decreases the stock price.

How Does The Stock Price Effects Investment

Retail traders look at the current situation of the stock price and invest. When the Institutional investors reduce their investments in these stocks, these stocks starts to fall and is seen by retail investors. It is obvious that they get tempted and sell their stocks. This is a simple reason why retail investors sell when the markets fall and buy when the markets go up and lose money in the long run. In reality they should buy more when the stocks are falling and sell to book profits when the stocks are rising. Unfortunately since the birth of stock markets retail investors are doing this mistake time and again and will continue to do so.

Conclusion of the Affects of Interest Rates In Stock Markets

• When Interest rates are hiked it becomes costlier for banks to borrow money from Central Banks
• They pass these higher interest rates to consumers so rates on all loans like home, car, personal and business loans goes up
• Due to the above, cash in the system decreases and demand of products slows down
• When business loan rates goes up, businesses borrow less money and their speed of growth slows down
• When business growth speed slows down, it affects their prices and stocks begins to fall
• Vice-versa when the Central Banks lower their interest rates.
  

FED May Raise Interest Rate and it may impact stock markets all over the world.

The Federal Reserve Bank’s FED decision on whether to raise interest rates is due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern.

India time it will be early morning Thursday, till then all stock markets in the world may not decide the direction.

Which means some sudden move may happen from Wednesday close to Thursday open.

If rates remains unchanged not much move may happen but VIX may drop – bad for option buyers.

Most experts feel there will be an increase but we all will know the real news only Thursday morning.

It is better to take a decision only after the news is out not before it as it could lead to losses.

Update 14-Dec-2016:

Its 10.48 pm India time on 14-Dec-2016 and the FED meeting may have started. What they will do, we do not know but The FED is widely expected to raise rates today and this may impact world markets.

Please be very careful with your traders tomorrow as your biggest enemy greed may come in and destroy your wealth.

Do not trade without a hedge, since you have not done my course there is nothing more I can say but those who know what a hedge is please do not trade naked.

Those who have done my course I am sending this email in advance so that almost all of them read before markets opens tomorrow.

Results: In an unexpected move FED kept rates unchanged. However what may happen in future we do not know.

Update 17-Dec-2016:

The Federal Reserve hiked short-term interest rates by 0.25 percentage point today. It’s the first time the central bank has raised rates in almost a year. It is also strange that it did not raise interest rates in its general meeting on 14-Dec-2016, howsoever today it did that in an unexpected move but universal expectations.

This has not impacted the markets much as it was expected and factored anyway into the stock markets.

Please see my yesterdays email. I had written that all over the world the stock markets are going up. In fact Dow Jones one of the main stock market Index of USA has hit a record high yesterday.

Yesterday it closed even higher. Dow and S&P 500 hit fresh records. It looks like traders there are seeing Donald Trump win as a positive sign for business in USA.

I had also written that Indian traders follow the US markets. The results is in for all to see. Today Nifty is up by 1.44% currently at 8218.75 (08-Dec-2016 at 1.11 pm).

Since last few days I was giving some advice to my course subscribers which was different form my course and they must have made good profits there too.

RBI rate policy: It is strange that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday kept benchmark rates unchanged, still stock markets in India are going up. So why still Indian stock markets are rising? This is the US effect, not the India effect.

Sometimes, in fact most of the times, I see that logic works more than what Technical Analysis says in stock markets. Due to the 500 and 1000 notes demonetization effect most Technical Analysis were saying Nifty may see levels of 7600 or below. Fact is it did not even break 7900. In my view most Technical Analysis do not make money.

This is the reason I believe in thinking about most traders mindset on what they may trade, rather than what the experts are saying on TV or what a brainless software tells you to trade.

Neither experts talking on TV nor any TA software has the power to control millions of traders.

If you go deep into it. Only 1% of traders see them and listen to them carefully, and out of that 60% ignore what they are saying. So how can they be correct if traders are not doing as they are saying?

If you do not believe me follow any TA expert on TV and do a paper trading on their advice. Within months you will see that what they tell does not make money. So why they are shown on TV? To get eye balls, to increase the Television Rating Point (TRP), and to make more money via advertising slots.

So if you really need to make money trading only way out is to educate yourself as much as possible on stock markets.

RBI may cut rates on 07-12-2016 Wednesday (tomorrow), by 25 Basis Point (BPS). This could be one reason stock markets in India, Nifty and BSE are going up.

One basis point is equal to 0.01%. So 25 basis points is 0.25% reduction in interest rate.

Definition of BPS from Investopedia:

Basis point (BPS) refer to a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01% (0.0001), and is used to denote the percentage change in a financial instrument.

What does this mean?

This means the repo rate that RBI pays to banks to keep money with it will get reduced by 0.25%.

So What This Has To Do With Stock Markets?

When Repo Rates are reduced banks make less money with the parked money with RBI.

When banks make less money it is obvious that they cannot give more money to people who keep money with them, so it is likely that the Fixed Deposit rates may get reduced.

It is to be seen that home loans and personal loan rates get reduced or not.

Please note that to reduce the FD rates depends on the management of the bank so the Fixed Deposit rates differs from one bank to another.

It should also be noted that CRR limit is likely to be maintained at the 4 percent level. Which means banks will still keep 4% of the money they receive from deposits.

Update on 07-12-2016, 11.20 am:

Today is the RBI Policy on rate day and as written yesterday we may see a 25 BPS cut in Repo rate. In fact all 6 members of the MPC voted in favor of a rate cut, so 25 basis points rate cut is almost sure.

In fact many banks have begun to reduce interest rates ahead of Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement as cost of funds continues to decline. Bank of Baroda in the first bank to do so. Yesterday it reduced its one-year benchmark lending rate by 20 basis points or 0.20%.

Due to this expectation Nifty is trying to go up. If it happens Nifty may be up by a few percentage in days to come else we may see levels of 8000 again. But there is a big chance of rate cut, so positive news for Investors which means Nifty will go up.

All over the world the stock markets are going up. In fact Dow Jones one of the main stock market Index of USA has hit a record high yesterday.

This is good news for Indian markets. Why? Because most of the times Indian traders copy the movement of the US markets. If RBI does cut repo rate by 25 basis points we will see Nifty moving up swiftly.

Please read to know why it is nearly impossible to make 10% a month from stock markets or options and futures trading.

Most people on this Earth when told about the stock markets think that 10% a month is achievable. And once their demat share trading account is opened they try that and keep losing money.

Let’s not go very far. In 2007 when I was introduced to stock markets by my friends I also thought the same. That 7 Lakhs loss is due to the greed to make 10% a month. Reality is I lost almost 7-8% a month.

I was lucky I had only 7 lakhs in my saving account else if more I would have lost that as well.

Is Making 10% a Month Possible In Stock Markets?

If you take a long view means 10% a month continuously for 1 year or a 120% return in a year. The answer is NO.

Occasionally fluke trading in one month out of 12 – the answer is yes. But please do not forget that 10% if you made in a month was result of a fluke not out of your judgement or knowledge.

A few days back I got this message from one of my free newsletter subscriber.

Hello Sir,

Your course is helping many traders and I also want to get benefited from your course but the problem is I have very less knowledge in options and never traded single option trade till now since 3 years.

Also I am confused that after taking the course will I be able to bring at least 10% return every month or not? Because I want at least 10% return every month so that may feel it as a really a great return and achievement. Further I have lost around 5 lakhs trading equity and now left with only 25000. I am very depressed of my life now because I don’t have any job also and I am married just 2 months ago. Please suggest me what should I do and I am mad about getting at least 10% return every month through your course. Please clarify is it possible? Thanks and really your efforts are benefiting so many traders. Great work by you.
God bless you and your family.

Here is the screenshot:

How many times he repeated “At least 10% a month”? 3 times.

Please do not forget at least was also typed 3 times along with 10% a month. Which means he want the least 10% and max there is no limit.

Here was my answer:

10% return is NOT possible in any strategy in stock market trading anywhere in world. Please do not dream something which no one has ever did.

With my course strategies you can make only 3% a month.

Here is the screenshot:

Fact is I do not keep track of who called me for the course, who whatsapped me for the course, who emailed me for the course etc. Because I neither have the time nor any interest in marketing through calls or Whatsapp to people to do the course. That’s the job of loss making tips providers.

I just reply back, and forget. If you do the course good for you what do I make? Just the course fee what else?

So I do not know whether this person did my course or not, but what I am trying to say is I do not tell a lie to anyone to do the course and take their money. I just tell the truth. If they feel 3% return is a good a month they buy else they just drop the phone and I never call back.

Do you know the what is the return of Warren Buffett, the best stock investor (not trader) in his entire investing career? It is just a shade above 22% CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate). With just 22% a year or 22/12 = 1.84% a month, Warren Buffett goes on to become one of the richest person on Earth.

But still almost all new comers in stock markets believe they will trade and make 10% a month. This means beating the best stock investor by 8% a month. Once they lose all they had, reality hits and then they try to make less. Less does not mean 2-3% a month, they still try to make 5-7% a month. Once even this they are not able to make, they leave the trading field either in frustration or because they do not have any more money to trade (like me which when I stopped trading in 2010 to do research for 2 years). 🙂

It looks like this is not going to stop and will keep happening even thousands of years from now. It is sad but alas I alone cannot change the mindset of people.

I am sure a lot of people reading my emails who have still not done my course must be trying either 10% a month or 5-6% a month.

My dear friend let me tell you out of lots of research and experience that making 10% a month from stock market trading is NOT possible for years. Please don’t take the self destructive path of losing money to make more money.

Whether to do my course or not is your choice but at least do not fall for the impression that 10% return a month is possible in stock markets for the long term. It is just not possible, however losing 10% or more per month is possible in stock trading. So please rethink next time you risk your money on trading to make 10% return a month.

I hope you know my website TheOptionCourse.com has a FaceBook page where anyone can like it. Here is the FaceBook page link:
https://www.facebook.com/theoptioncourse/

And here is today’s post:
https://www.facebook.com/theoptioncourse/posts/981871288584943

Today morning I got a great good news when I saw my website’s FaceBook page.

IT GOT 1004 LIKES. I am SO HAPPY 🙂

Here it is:
https://www.facebook.com/theoptioncourse/likes

1000+ FaceBook Likes

If you do not know I started reading about Stock Market Trading, Mutual Funds, Personal Finance Management and Options and Futures Trading from 2010, after losing Rs.7 lakhs+ trading Stocks Equity Intraday, Options and Futures and when I was on the verge of suicide and highly depressed.

To help other in stock markets I started this website in May, 24, 2013. Due to too much of time taken by the site and helping others for free, both of which cannot come for free, I started the Conservative Option Course in May 2014.

FaceBook page was launched one and a half years back after one of my happy clients suggested me to start a FaceBook page.

1004/545 = 1.8 likes a day. Too good. So happy 🙂 I never thought this was possible.

Please understand that these are REAL likes not FAKE likes, as I do not get paid for likes in the FaceBook page so why bother?

Thanks to those who liked it. Please note that if you have a FaceBook account and you like this page you will get instant message as soon as I upload anything in this page. Mostly it is link to my latest newsletter that you can read on your smart phone or laptop too. I also post in the FB page link to a the new post, as soon as an article is updated in the site.

And you get FaceBook message for life even if I stop sending newsletters, but if I upload any article in this page on stock markets. Please note that you will be notified by FaceBook.com not by me as they are the owners.

If you do not have an account in FaceBook you can open it here:
https://www.facebook.com/

Then like my website’s FaceBook page by going to this link:
https://www.facebook.com/theoptioncourse/

To like, click on the “Like” button.

Today’s FB post link:
https://www.facebook.com/theoptioncourse/posts/981871288584943

The text:

Thanks From the Bottom Of My Heart for 1000+ likes in just 1 and a half years. Thanks again I promise I will keep writing good articles in my site to help Indian stock market traders and investors as much as I can by giving them correct financial knowledge.

Please give a good rating to my page.

Thanks for liking my website’s FaceBook page.

Stock markets do not move in a single direction when traders are confused.

Since last few days Nifty is moving between 8000 to 8200. The fight between bulls and bears is continuing and those sitting on the sidelines do not know which side to support. They are still struggling with so called bookish knowledge like Bollinger Bands, Candle Sticks Charts, Open Interests, or any other Technical Analysis or Trend analysis software tools which they have bought for millions of dollars thinking to become millionaires. Which has actually made them poorer.

It has been more than 2 and half years that I got an opportunity to talk with a lot of traders in India and abroad. Thanks to my website. Not all of them bought my course, but that is not important.

What is important is what I learned from them. At least 30% of them were Technical Analyst. Not a single, I repeat not a single out of those thousand odd calls from technical analysts were making money. All of them were big time losers. Some in fact got my course and are doing good now.

Ravi of course is one of them. He was losing heavily before doing my course. Today he is doing great. I am happy for him. It does not matter I got peanuts paid for the course which made him a millionaire. I am happy if anyone who does my course is happy. How much they are making does not inspire me. What inspires me is just a “Thank You” Message.

Why? Assume Mr. A has a business and is doing well. But not a single customer comes to him or calls him to say Thank You.

Just nearby there is another business done by Mr. B. He is also doing good but not as good as Mr. A. But every now and then Mr. B keep getting calls and Thank You messages from his customers. Mr. A does not get even one in a year.

At the end of the day who is more happy? Mr. A or Mr. B? Of course Mr. B. Exactly. I hope you got the point.

It does not matter to me how much my competitors are making money out of a course or giving tips (which I am totally against) and/or whatever. I am more happy when I get a Thank You message from my customers which rarely anyone else in this business is getting. This makes me happy and proud.

Money can only buy luxury and happiness connected to luxuries. Money cannot buy happiness coming from true relationships, love and affection. God is very clever and not given this power to money.

Anyway coming back. This is what I concluded after talking with thousands of traders:

Technical Analysis is history made in beautiful graphs or charts detailing what has happened in the past. Technical Analysis is not science or astrology which can predict the future of what will (not may) happen in the future.

If Technical Analysis could predict the future all those traders who were Technical Analyst or did a course on TA, would have been making money. But the success ratio was zero percent.

I do not want to and cannot name due to customer’s legal obligation as I do not disclose their full names, one very big Technical Analyst who has done more than 500+ Television shows in India and abroad has also done my course and is very happy with it.

I will keep saying what I believe in and will keep happening in future. Sooner or later it will be bulls who will win and all those bears will turn to bulls, but after losing a lot of money.

If you have not done my course I request do not trade now. Just sit on the sidelines and watch the markets.

All those expert TA’s must have got yesterday a buy signal by there software or by their own analysis – but they must have lost huge today. I request please do not trade. Most of you are naked option buyers, let me tell you its is a dangerous game to play.

VIX is very high today and even if your direction is correct but if VIX falls, you may lose money or make a very small profit which will not be justified.

If your direction is wrong you will lose money anyway.

Right now for people who have not done my course please relax, do not trade.

If you have done my course check your email, I have written there which strategy to trade.