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In my last post I discussed 7 reasons why you should not trade on budget day.

Look how these words came true from that post:

Nifty will move swiftly up and down as the budget speech progresses. One good news and Nifty will jump 25-50 points, one bad and it will dip 50-70 points. You can never predict the direction of the markets that day. However watching Nifty dance will be fun if you are not trading. Moreover since Nifty will move very fast it will be hard to trade.

In this post I will analyze what may have happened to Intraday traders on the Budget Day. Look at the image below. See how Nifty danced:

Nifty on Budget Day

Photo credit: moneycontrol.com

On 28-Feb-2015, the budget day Nifty opened at 8913.05, went to a high of 8941.10, hit a low of 8751.35 and closed at 8901.85.

From low to high the points difference is: 8941.10 – 8751.35 = 189.75. In terms of percentage it is: (189.75/8751.35)*100 = 2.17%. It looks small but see how Nifty danced from 8900 to 8840 to 8900 and then again back to 8840, then hit a low of 8750, then back to 8840, then again back to 8900 – closing almost flat since the days’ opening. All this in few hours.

Its not about budget, but any day when a big news is being declared Nifty will behave like this. This makes life difficult for Intraday traders. For positional and conservative traders however this movement means nothing.

Turnover was Rs. 10,064.41 crores. On normal days the turnover is around 6,000-7,000 crore. That’s more than 40% increase in turnover.

Such an increase in turnover on a single day is a proof that there was too much of Intraday trading. You can easily guess that most of them may have lost money.

On top of that India VIX dropped 13.29% from the previous day’s closing. It dropped to 16.97 from 19.57. (Read my previous article, I had mentioned that VIX will drop). Dropping Vega means the option premium will not appreciate well even if Nifty appreciates. It means most option buyers may not have made money.

All those who made some money had to time Nifty well. This means taking a contrarian call. They must have bought ATM Call option when Nifty was at around 8800 and sell it when it went back to 8900 levels. How many traders can do that?

Intraday traders mostly want to go with the trend. They do not go against the trend.

Which means when Nifty went up they must have bought calls, hit stop loss when Nifty was around 8750, then they must have bought Puts, but Nifty again changed trend, hitting stop loss in Puts again.

This is a guess, but this is what happens with Intraday traders during most trading days.

With option sellers (though only a small percentage of Intraday traders are option sellers), the problem may have been more psychological than technical. Imagine selling options and taking unlimited risk for a limited unknown profit on the budget day. I do not think anyone should do that. Just thinking selling naked options on a budget day makes me nervous. I do not have that guts.

Of course if you hedge your positions then profits and losses both are limited and that takes fun out of Intraday trading on such a huge day. I am sure most of them did not hedge their positions. And lost money. 🙂

Some Intraday players trade on budget day just to satisfy their egos. They know fully well the dangers involved, but still trade. If they make even 1 point profit they feel great. But then they take a large position only to lose more than they made. Egos don’t work in stock markets.

If you are also an Intraday trader, I urge you to stop trading Intraday as soon as possible. You will only make your brokers rich. You will lose money trading Intraday, if not you can never compound Intraday trading with large positions. Even if you are a smart Intraday trader, your profits will not be significant even years from now.

Have you heard of any Intraday trader supporting his family from his trades or increasing his wealth through Intraday trading significantly over last decade?

Did you trade Intraday on the budget day? If yes what was the result?

{ 6 comments }

Being a conservative trader I do not trade on big news days like Budget. 2015 Financial Budget is on 28-Feb-2015, a Saturday. For a conservative trader like me it is NOT an ideal situation to trade. Even though a holiday the markets will remain open for live trading. I do not care, for me big news days are trading holidays.

I think the brokers lobbied and got SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) to let them do their business on a trading holiday. This is one day they make a lot of money. They didn’t want to lose a great money making opportunity this year.

Here are 7 reasons why you should not trade on Budget days:

(This holds true for any big financial news announcement days.)

1. Volatility will be very high: Nifty will move swiftly up and down as the budget speech progresses. One good news and Nifty will jump 25-50 points, one bad and it will dip 50-70 points. You can never predict the direction of the markets that day. However watching Nifty dance will be fun if you are not trading. Moreover since Nifty will move very fast it will be hard to trade.

2. Margins will be blocked more: Most brokers will not allow normal margin blocking rules on Budget days. I think for Intraday, most brokers will NOT allow MIS trading in equity cash, so 100% cash or full margin will be blocked. Which means if you select MIS to trade equity, the orders will be rejected due to margin requirements or they will block full margin if you have cash in your trading account.

In F&O & Commodities, NRML or full margins will be blocked too. Any MIS order will be outright rejected or NRML equivalent margins will be blocked.

Cover orders will not be available for trading. Cover orders are orders that enjoy even less margin requirements than MIS for Intraday because the trader has to compulsory put a stop loss in the system while placing the order. This stop cannot be changed when the order is triggered. All orders are executed at market. Since the losses are taken care by the system, the margin requirement reduces.

So why cover orders are not allowed on budget days if the stop loss is compulsory? Because stocks or index may jump and the stop loss may not get triggered and if the stop loss is a market order (not limit order), then the trader may incur huge losses. Your broker do not want this. They know if you lose a huge amount of money in a single day you will stop trading and they will lose one valuable client. Their business can get affected.

Moreover if you incur huge loss and you do not have money in your account then the brokers will have to give you a margin call. This is a cumbersome process for them. Imagine if 200 clients lose 1 lakh and they have only 50,000 in their trading account. Their total loss is 2 crore, but the money with the broker is only 200*50000 = 1 crore. This means in 2 days time the broker has to arrange Rs. 1 crore, to be given to NSE/BSE, from the clients who lost money.

What if most are unable to pay? In that case the broker will have to pay money to NSE/BSE from their own pocket. They might even lose their brokerage license because their risk management team failed to manage risk of their clients. This is a big risk for brokers, so cover orders or MIS are not allowed on budget or big news announcement days.

Which means your broker will love you if you trade but hate to give margins on Budget days.

Of course if you are not trading Intraday or taking positional trades, there will not be much of a difference.

3. Risk Reward ratio is not good: Higher margins, more risk, less reward. Risk reward ratio will not be in your favor. More money at risk, less profits is not attractive for any trading business in the world.

4. Limit vs. Margins: On that day if you hit market order you will NOT get a good price because of the jumps, and if you do a limit trade you will not get a good trade fill fast. You may have to wait longer and in frustration you will hit market just to trade. This is like forcing yourself to trade. A forced trade is sure to lose money. Not good.

5. Volatility will crash: This is good for option sellers, but delta can kill them. If the stock moves very fast against their option, volatility crash will not be of much help – delta will do the damage. Option buyers will see the option prices not moving fast enough because Volatility will drop. Therefore its not a good day to trade for both sellers and buyers.

6. You will get frustrated: End of the trading session most traders will be frustrated because things will not go as they planned.

7. Money will be lost: This is true for 90% of the traders. Because of all the factors above it is most likely you will lose money trading on the budget day. Save you money to start trading from next day.

All in all the traders’ ego gets busted, money is lost and the day is destroyed.

I suggest just watch Budget on TV and relax with your family. Do not destroy your holiday because of the budget. After the budget is out you will have some idea of where the markets will head for the next few days – you can then chose to take a conservative directional call.

I have got out of all of my F&O positions and I hope you get out too. I sincerely hope you will not trade on budget days. Lets leave greed for one day. 🙂

Remember that only 10% of the traders will make money, the rest will lose. Being my website visitor I do not want you to lose money on that day. This is my humble request. Rest its your money and decision.

Here is copy of email I wrote to my email subscribers one day before budget requesting them not to trade:

This is a reminder that please DO NOT trade tomorrow. Volatility will be very high and constantly dropping and its not good for option buyers. Sudden jump may prove dangerous for option sellers as well.

Here is one real example: On 26-Feb-15 (yesterday), Mar 9500 CE closed at 11.45 Nifty at 8685. On 27-Feb-15 (today), Nifty closed at 8845 and Mar 9500 CE closed at 14.85.

VIX dropped by 4.91%.

As you can see the danger has already started. Just a small drop of 4.91% made sure a huge 160 points jump in Nifty had very minor increase in the OTM options. Of course you can argue that ITMs have appreciated, but then the money you pay to buy will not justify the risk reward ratio.

If you insist on trading tomorrow, please at least do a credit spread. Which means buy at ATM and sell OTM. This will highly restrict your losses, of course profits will get restricted too.

Do not short naked options tomorrow. If you want to short then, short one and buy 2 OTM options.

Trade Conservatively.
Thanks,

Trade Conservatively & Be Happy.

{ 2 comments }

In this post we will learn how to trade the short ratio call spread.

This strategy is traded when a trader has a range-bound view on the stock, but feels that the volatility will decrease in the near future.

Creating the Short Ratio Call Spread:

1) Buy 1 In The Money (ITM) Call Option
2) Sell 2 (or double the number of) Out Of The Money (OTM) Call Options

Note: Refer my article on long call ladder. You will see that in the long call ladder a trader buys one ITM call option and sell one ATM call option and another OTM call option. So what is the difference between long call ladder and the short call ratio trade?

The difference is the credit received and risk in the trade. While in the short ratio call spread the credit received is more, in the long call ladder the credit received is less. Risk is also more in this strategy than the long call ladder because the shorted options are near the money.

Risk vs. Reward:

Risk is Unlimited.
Reward is Limited.

Look at the image below to understand better:

short ratio call spread profit and loss

Lets now trade Short Ratio Call Spread using real premiums.

Date: 23-Feb-2015
Nifty spot at 8755
INDIA VIX: 21.63

26-Mar-15 CE 8,800.00 213.00 (We will consider this OTM Call Option)
26-Mar-15 CE 8,700.00 266.00 (We will consider this ITM Call Option)

Please note that on the day I was writing this article (23-Feb-2015), VIX was on the higher end so you are seeing such high premiums for at the money options. You may get slightly lower premium when you trade. The higher premium is also due to Budget 2015 which will be declared end of this week.

Lets now trade this using the above premiums. To make math simple we trade 100 shares.

1) Buy 100 ITM Call Option: 266*100 = Rs. 26,600.00 (Debit)
2) Sell 200 OTM Call Option: 213*200 = Rs. 42,600.00 (Credit)

Total Credit: 42600-26600 = Rs. 16,000.00

Note: If you do not go far or deep out of the money, ideally you should get a credit. But risk will also increase. Remember if Nifty keeps going up, this trade will have unlimited loss. So the selection of the strike to short is VERY CRITICAL to the success of this trade.

On the one hand, if you sell the nearest OTM option, you get a large credit, but your risk on the upside is very close. On the other hand, if you go deep out of the money and sell options far away then you may not get a credit and may have to pay cash to trade this. In this case the risk reduces, but reward also decreases.

So Which Strike To Sell?

If you sell options very close out of the money, you are actually taking a bear call. Like in the example above. The trader has got a large credit – so he will be happy if Nifty falls.

If you sell options far out of the money, you are taking a slightly bullish call. Since you paid money to trade you want to profit from both the bought options (for that Nifty has to rise), and the sold options (for that Nifty cannot travel far up). So you would want Nifty to go up slowly.

Therefore I suggest you sell options that far so that you pay a very small amount or get a small credit. This will balance out the bear and bull view and be correct with the strategies view which is range-bound with fall in volatility.

Can you smell the benefits of being a conservative trader? By selling not very far nor very close out of the money options the trader has taken a balanced call. Now, three things can happen:

a) Nifty does not move: Its OK. If the trader took a credit while initiating this trade, he can keep the credit as profits. Or if he paid a small amount the loss is negligible.

b) Nifty goes up: Since the sold calls are still some distance away, chances are that Nifty will take some time to reach the short strike. Now Theta will do its job and take premium away from the sold options. Of course the bought options that are in the money having higher intrinsic value may still be making money. On top of that the decreasing volatility will also eat some premium from the sold options. The trader can exit as soon as Nifty reaches the sold options in profit.

c) Nifty falls: In that case the trader can keep the small credit that he got while initiating this trade. If there was a small debit, that is also fine.

I did not go very far to help you understand the strategy. When you trade take your own call.

This trade has maximum profits when the stock is exactly at the sold option strike on the expiry day. Of course if this happens before expiry, then the trade may be in loss or profit depending on volatility. If volatility dropped significantly, the trade may be in profit. If it increased then the trade may be in loss. It is advisable to take a stop loss when the stock reaches the shorted call option strike as potentially the losses are unlimited if the stock keeps traveling north.

Passage of time and decreasing volatility helps this trade.

Important note: Just to get a large credit please do not sell more options than what is described in this trade. You should only sell double or less number of lots of options than the lots of options bought. If you succeeded trading this once you may get overconfident and sell more options – this is where you may get in trouble.

Lets calculate the profit and loss of the above trade on the expiry day:

1) Nifty at 8700 exactly at the bought option strike:

All options expire worthless. The trader can keep Rs. 16,000.00 or whatever the credit he got while initiating this trade. Note that anything below the results will be same.

Lets calculate return on investment (ROI):

Rs. 13,500 is blocked to sell one lot or 25 shares of Nifty. We sold 200 shares. So total lots sold = 200/25 = 8 * 13500 = Rs. 1,08,000 blocked as margin.

Rs 26,600.00 was blocked for buying 100 shares of 8700 strike call option.

Total money blocked: 1,08,000 + 26,600 = Rs. 1,34,600.00

ROI: (16000 / 134600) * 100 = 11.88%

This is a very good return in 30 days.

2) Nifty at 8800 exactly at the sold option strike (this is the maximum profit zone – please refer image above):

The sold options expire worthless.

Credit from the sold options: Rs. 42,600.00

Calculating loss from the bought options:

The 8700 call option will be 100. So the loss = 100-266 = -166*100 = -16,600.00

Total profit: 42600 – 16600 = Rs. 26,000.00

ROI: (26000 / 134600) * 100 = 19.31%

This is amazing return in 30 days.

3) Nifty at 8900 (profits will start reducing):

8700 Call is 200: 200-266 = -66*100 = -6600
8800 Call is 100: 213-100 = 113*200 = 22600

Total profit: 22600-6600 = Rs. 16,000.00

ROI: (16000 / 134600) * 100 = 11.88%

This is a very good return in 30 days.

4) Nifty at 9000:

8700 Call is 300: 300-266 = 34*100 = 3400
8800 Call is 200: 213-200 = 13*200 = 2600

Total profit: 3400+2600 = Rs. 6,000.00

ROI: (6000 / 134600) * 100 = 4.45%

This is a good return in 30 days.

5) Nifty at 9100 (break even breached – losses begins – here is where you should take a stop loss):

8700 Call is 400: 400-266 = 134*100 = 13400
8800 Call is 300: 213-300 = -87*200 = -17400

Total Loss: 13400-17400 = Rs. -4,000.00

ROI: (-4000 / 134600) * 100 = -2.97%

Negative ROI.

6) Nifty at 9200 (losses escalates):

8700 Call is 500: 500-266 = 234*100 = 23400
8800 Call is 400: 213-400 = -187*200 = -37400

Total Loss: 23400-37400 = Rs. -14,000.00

ROI: (-14000 / 134600) * 100 = -10.40%

Negative ROI.

For every 100 points move up the trader will lose Rs. 10,000.00

And virtually since Nifty can move up to infinity – the loss on paper is unlimited. However we all know that somewhere the trader will take stop loss.

Important: This is looking like a great trade as losses only begins after Nifty travels a considerable distance. But you do not know how fast it may happen. If it happens very fast you may lose a lot of money even if you take a stop loss a couple of 100 points away. And since a major event is coming this Saturday (stock markets will remain open like normal trading day), its not the right time to play this trade. If you want to, please let the Budget pass away.

Also once the Budget is over, the premiums of the options will come down drastically because the volatility will crash. Due to this your break even will also get reduced and therefore short ratio call spread will become slightly more risky. If you chose your strike prices correctly and you are ready to take a stop loss, you can trade this strategy.

Conclusion:

  • Short Ratio Call Spread is done by buying one in the money call option and selling double number of out of the money call option.

  • Risk is unlimited, Reward is limited.

  • It works best in a range-bound market and volatility dropping.

  • You should take a stop loss when the break even is breached. You should have done your calculations before putting the trade.

  • Do not trade when a major event is near.

Let me know issues faced in short ratio call spread if you ever traded.

{ 6 comments }

Well yesterday I got an email which was very disturbing. Someone lost more than Rs. 2 crores trading options.

Click on the image below to enlarge and read the email properly.

Rs 2 Crore Loss

Rs 2 Crore Loss – Click to Enlarge

Disclaimer: I cannot verify the authenticity of this email nor do I know whether it is true or not, but if it is, then probably this is something un-explainable and inexcusable.

I mean you cannot lose so much money that can change your life. 5-7 lakhs is ok. In the long run it won’t matter much, it will not change your life. But that is it.

Here is another trader who lost more than Rs. 40 lakhs.

If you have lost more than a lakh in the stock market, you should stop trading and learn trading – not just keep speculating and losing. Most of the traders who lose money are option buyers.

Read this article to know why option buyers never make money over a period of time. By the way selling naked options is even more dangerous.

Just imagine what this person could have done with this money or anyone of us can do with so much money especially in India. I mean you need not work for the rest of your life and still generate enough money every month from guaranteed returns that you would find hard to finish even if you live a lavish lifestyle.

If he bought a big house in any city of his choice, and a great car for 1 crore (85-90 lakhs for the house and 10-15 lakhs for the car. I know car lovers will hate me for this but in economics the car has a diminishing return – the house can be sold at a profit 🙂 ) – he would still be left with Rs. 1 crore. If he goes and fix this in a bank – he makes Rs. 72,588.00 per month from interests alone (calculated at current Bank Fixed Deposit (FD) of 8.75% per year).

Better still if he keeps this in a debt/liquid fund which returns better than Bank FDs, then he makes even more. Currently debt funds in India are making more than 10% a year – but it keeps changing and is not guaranteed “on paper”. However they return better than bank fixed deposits.

Whats more, if he can somehow keep that money in the debt fund for three years – then the tax on the returns gets highly reduced. You only pay 20% of the profits after indexation. Bank FDs returns are taxed as per your income slab even if it is kept for 5 years.

He can always invest 50% in bank fixed deposits and 50% in liquid funds to diversify the risk. Click here to read how I manage my financial portfolio and diversify my risk.

He can spend the money earned from interests guilt free, as he likes, without saving one rupee from it as he will again get 72,588.00 (or more if 50% of it is in liquid fund) next month. 🙂 Even after spending this much money, he gets to keep Rs. 1 crore. What a loss.

Here are some more loss stories that I was told on phone or email. All personal details of the trader is kept confidential:

I know one person who did not take a stop loss even when his losses were at almost one crore. He had sold too many naked Nifty Futures when Nifty was rising in 2013-14 thinking it will come down. This was when Nifty was at 7700. I asked him to take a stop loss immediately but he did not. Today Nifty is nearing 9000, if he has not taken a stop loss imagine where his losses are today. This in a small city in Warangal – Andhra Pradesh.

At least five traders have told me their losses have exceeded 40 lakhs. One person sold his property worth lakhs and lost all his money trading intraday.

An engineer left a plum job of software engineer in Bangalore to do trading full time. Initially made a lot of money, got greedy and lost it all. Now he is asking his friends to look a job for him.

Here is another sad story from Goa:

Dear Sir,

My name is XXX, I’m from Goa, I have been a trader for almost 4-5 years with little breaks in between. But, I have never made any mentionable profits as such. Mostly it was like little profit, more loss, this cycle was repeated for quite some time, till my account eroded considerably.

Furthermore I had taken money from my friends and colleagues and lost it too (approx. 15 lakhs) now these people are behind me to pay back their money, making my life really miserable.

I used to trade mostly in Nifty Futures (Index Futures – most of the times I used to make profits) and Nifty Options (Index Options – always made losses, unless some fluke trade made me profit).

Now, my situation is so bad, that even my wife and parents are not so free to speak to me. They have become reluctant to even talk to me normal day to day talking, because they have come to know what I have done with my money and my friends money. My friends frequently call me on my phone and visit my home and threaten me. Now the situation has become unbearable.

Even my self confidence has gone so low, I hardly go out of the home, even if I have to go for some urgent work, I wear full face black helmet and go, to avoid the people from whom I had taken money. To make matters worse, I’m not even getting a job with justifiable salary in Goa (this is because of the break I took to do full time trading).

It has become difficult for me to meet my daily expenses, and I can’t support my family.

Sir, right now I have only 16 thousand rupees left in my trading account, and don’t have money to pay you fully for the course, but I can pay you Rs. 2,000/- now and Rs. 2,000/- after some days, when I start making profits with the Rs. 16,000 that I have in my trading account and taking support of your options course.

So, I request your good self to kindly bear with me and allow me to do the course with 2,000 now and balance 2,000 later. But one thing is sure that I will definitely pay your money, since you are my Guru.

Please help me Sir, I will be really grateful to you.

I asked him to look for a job and stop trading.

Another email:

I have been trading unsuccessfully since 10 years, meaning I keep changing strategies. I have a good understanding on trends, position sizing, supply and demand, however, when it comes to put on the trade, I am not consistent. The reason being I think directional trading can change your view with market ongoing. I also studied in depth options and have a good understanding on payoff, risk:reward, etc on option trading for iron condors, butterfly, credit spreads, etc.

What was difficult is that risk : reward are really risky when we see the actual options on NSE. i.e. you get less credit versus the risk. Sometimes it is skewed to 1:5 R:R. So if I think to earn Rs. 10,000 profit, I need to put on risk of Rs. 50,000. If the R:R is so extreme, I think 2 or 3 losses out of 10 will keep trading account in negative zone.

My view: 10 years of trading and still losing. Even worse he learned nothing. In 10 years a kid who was in class 1 will be appearing for his 10th board exams with a lot of knowledge about the world. What a waste of time. Money can be earned again, time will NEVER come back. To me time is more important than money.

This is what I replied: You may be right in what you say BUT only when you DO NOT manage risk well before time AND you have NOT hedged your positions.

Options can be made to play against one another.

Why let that 1 loss exceed the limit? Managing it before is the key and playing it smartly is also important.

There are countless stories I hear almost everyday but they are not worth mentioning. Please stop your trading if you are still losing money trading options. Read books or good websites online on options. I bet if you keep speculating, you keep losing.

Cheer up. There are some good stories as well. Someone told me that two guys in his city were making almost 5 lakhs every month trading options with a 40 lakh account. That is over 12% return a month. 🙂 Well congratulations if this is true.

So making money is possible but if you have some knowledge and have a strict plan. Enhance your knowledge in options and then trade. Please do not speculate. You will only lose money, and it will slowly accumulate to lakhs. Do not let yourself bleed slowly – you will not realize the small losses, but by the time you realize you may be deep in losses.

How much money have you lost or made trading options? Please do write in comment. Your email will not be shown and you can always use your first name to hide your identity. Thanks.

{ 13 comments }

How To Trade Short Guts

Short Guts is exact opposite of Long Guts. While in the long guts, In The Money (ITM) options are bought, in the Short Guts In The Money (ITM) options are sold.

A lot of traders in India sell naked out of the money options. If you are one of them please read this article. I am sure it will learn some very important information on shorting options.

Construction of the Short Guts

Sell ITM Call Options.
Sell ITM (same number of) Put Options.
It should be done on the same Stock or Index and of the same expiry.

Options sold should be same distance from the current spot of Nifty or the stock. The further you go, the lesser you make because time value decreases, but the risk reduces. The closer you come, the more you make but the risk also increases.

Note that in short guts you do not profit from the intrinsic value, you only profit from the time value and volatility in the option.

Risk is Unlimited and Reward is Limited.

Short Guts Profit and Loss image:

short guts profit loss

See that the loss is unlimited on both sides.

When to Trade Short Guts?

If your view is that the stock is going to remain range-bound for the next few days because there is no major event happening in the near future and the Volatility is also expected to reduce.

For example you traded Long Guts and because of the huge movement you got out in profit. Now the news is now out and there is not much to happen in the next few days, you can then trade the Short Guts.

Remember that the Volatility will not get to normal in one or two trading sessions. It will take time to decrease. So ideally the Short Guts should be played when the news is out a couple of days back and markets have factored in the news and it looks like it will consolidate for the next few days. During this time the Volatility that has risen high due to the recent news, will also climb down slowly to settle at reasonable levels. This is perfect scenario to trade the Short Guts.

When the stock is range bound Short Guts profit, because both the decreasing Volatility and passing time eats the premium of the sold options. The trader can buy back the options at a lower cost and exit in profits.

Is Short Guts a Credit Spread?

In technical terms, yes, because the trader gets a credit when he initiates this trade and one option or both options make money.

Though I feel its not right to call this a credit spread. A real credit spread consists of a short position of higher delta and a long position of smaller delta. The long option saves the short from unlimited losses.

In the short guts the losses are unlimited, so please do not trade this thinking you are doing a credit spread. If you are not buying an option you are at risk of unlimited losses. Click here to read more about credit spreads.

Calculating Maximum Profit in Short Guts

Let me get real prices to help you understand how to calculate max profit:

Nifty on February 10, 2015 closed at 8565. Let us sell 8800 Feb PE and 8300 Feb CE. Note that both are almost 250 points away from spot and both are in the money options (and NOT out of the money like most traders love to sell).

8300 Feb CE: 347.00
8800 Feb PE: 227.00

Assuming someone sold the above options 1 lot each (or 25 shares of Nifty).

Max profit = Total credit minus difference between the two strikes minus brokerage (we will ignore brokerage)

= (347+227) – (8800-8300)
= 574-500
= 74 * 25 = Rs. 1850.00

Calculating Return in Investment (ROI): (1850/27000) * 100 = 6.85% in 16 days.

Yes this is an excellent return if Nifty remains between 8800 and 8300, but this ROI is against an infinite loss. So trade with caution.

Please understand that if you trade this, as soon as Nifty is anywhere near the sold strikes you will start losing sleep. Why? Because if Nifty keeps traveling in the same direction you will start losing money. However you still have sometime before you actually make a loss.

Calculating the break even:

8800 + 74 = 8874
8300 – 74 = 8226

Which means you only lose if Nifty is above 8874 or below 8226 on the expiry day, else you will take a profit anywhere between 0 to 74 points depending on where Nifty finishes.

Warning: Do Not fall into the trap that there is zero to little chance that Nifty will be above 8874 or below 8226 on expiry day. It may happen or may not happen. The point is you do not know. But one thing is for certain that you may lose a lot of money in some or the other short gut trade some day.

Therefore it is very important that you always hedge your positions just in case something goes wrong. Also hedging will give you a peace of mind, though it will eat into your profits. Nothing comes for free. 🙂

Note that in long guts the trader profits if any of the option i.e. the call or the put exceeds the break even. Here it has to remain between the break even points to profit.

Important Tip: There is no need to wait till expiry if you are trading the Short Gut. Once you are making reasonable profits you should exit. Get that unlimited loss off the table. Do not get greedy to take it all. It may prove to be dangerous.

How to Trade Short Guts as Volatility Play

Once a major news is out and Nifty or the stock had a big rally up or down, it is usual for the stock to consolidate for some time. At this time the Volatility is high, but it will try to go the mean in a few days time. This “few days time” has to be caught by you.

See this India VIX chart (source: moneycontrol)

india vix

As you can see there is a huge spike during the general elections. From the day results were out VIX went from a high of 39.3 on 12-May-2014 to 20.63 on 19-May-2014. So someone who sold a short gut around 12th May would be in good profits on 19th May. In such a short time Nifty also did not move much. It went from 6900 to 7300. This small movement cannot damage the short gut. The trader could have exited with a huge profit.

Conclusion:

  • Short Guts is a trade where the trader has a range-bound view in a stock or index.
  • It is played by selling In The Money Call and Put options. Both options should expire the same day. The number of options sold also should be same to make it a neutral trade. Also the distance from the spot price when sold also should be same.
  • The trader benefits if there is not much movement and volatility also drops.
  • Its better to take profits out once the volatility drops and not wait till expiry because you do not know where this stock will be on the expiry day.
  • Just as long guts, the short guts also cannot be compounded as too much money is at unlimited risk. One bad trade can take away years of profits made in this trade.

I hope you have learned some new things on shorting options. I am sure you must have shorted options at least once. Please let me know what difficulties you faced.

{ 16 comments }

How To Trade Long Guts

I am sure you must have heard of Long Straddle. It is an aggressive option strategy where a trader buys both ATM Call and Put options to make use of a big movement that he anticipates in the stock in the next few days. (It is not necessary to buy ATM strikes only; basically if you buy both Call and Put of the same stock or Index and of the same strike and expiry – you are trading a Long Straddle.)

Long Guts is somewhat similar to Long Straddle, except here the traders buys 1 (or more lots) In The Money (ITM) Call options and same number of In The Money (ITM) Put options.

Construction of the Long Guts

Buy ITM Call Options
Buy ITM (same number of) Put Options

Risk is Limited and Reward is unlimited.

Please see the image below to understand better:

long guts profit loss graph

When to Trade Long Guts?

When you anticipate a big movement in either direction – up or down on any stock or Nifty in the near future. The reason can be anything. A big news like budget, quarterly results of a stock, mergers, company buying another company, security threats, company going bankrupt etc. Whenever such a big news is coming, usually there is a lot of trading and the stock moves in either direction sharply.

The trader profits if any of the option i.e. the Call or the Put exceeds the break even point of the trade. It is also important that Volatility also increases. Since both the options are very costly – Volatility has a major role to play in profit or losses in the Long Guts.

How to Trade Long Guts

Note: We will also see that Long Guts is cheaper than Long Straddle even though more money is required to trade this.

1. Calculate Your Max Loss:

Before placing the trade the trader should calculate the maximum loss on the trade. This is how to do it:

Getting real prices:

Feb 02,2015: Nifty is closed at 8800. The Volatility is 20.41.

The trader decides to buy ITM 8600 CE @ 327 and ITM 9000 PE @ 240.

Lets calculate this on one lot only as too much is at stake in this trade. Remember the trader buys In The Money options and they are very costly. This is a big problem with Long Guts. You may need a lot of money to trade this, but still its a better trade than the Long Straddle.

Note: I rarely see traders in India trading the Long Guts for this simple reason that this trade needs a lot of money to play. We are not comfortable putting too much money on risk. 🙂 But we forget – no pain no gain. 🙂

Is this trade really costly? Ok lets see how much money is on risk and also evaluate if more money is risk in this trade or the Long Straddle which is the favorite strategy among aggressive option traders in India:

Money at risk: (327+240) * 25 = Rs. 14,175 + Brokerage. Lets forget the brokerage for now.

However the best part is, this is NOT the trader’s maximum loss. The maximum loss occurs when Nifty is anywhere between the two strikes. Assuming Nifty is exactly at 8800 on the expiry day. Lets calculate the max loss:

8600 CE will be 200 and,
9000 PE will also be 200.
Loss on CE: 200-327 = -127
Loss on PE: 200-240 = -40
Total Loss: -127-40 = -167 * 25 = Rs. -4175.00. This is the max loss.

Now lets compare losses of a trader who traded a Long Straddle (he bought both the 8800 CE and PE)

8800 CE is @ 200
8800 PE is @ 140

If on the expiry day Nifty is at 8800 the trader will lose 100% of the money he used to trade this.

Total loss: -200-140 = -340 * 25 = Rs. -8500.00

Now tell which strategy is more costly? Its obvious that though more money is required to play the Long Guts, it is much cheaper strategy than Long Straddle. 🙂

However this is not the end of story. The trader now needs to calculate the break even points.

2. Calculate the Break Even Points:

Lets calculate the break even points:

327 + 240 = 567

BE For the Call side: 8600 + 567 = 9167
BE For the Put side: 9000 – 567 = 8433

So if on the expiry day Nifty is above 9167 or below 8433 – the trader makes a profit.

Now lets calculate and see the breakeven for someone who traded the Long Straddle the same day.

200+140 = 340

This was done on the 8800 strike.

BE For the Call side: 8800 + 340 = 9140
BE For the Put side: 8800 – 340 = 8460

As you can see there is not much of a difference between the break even points of Long Straddle and Long Guts, but money at risk is less in Long Guts. Therefore it makes sense to play Long Guts than the Long Straddle, if you have a Volatile view on Nifty.

However as expiry comes near the Long Straddle will perform better than Long Guts as they will need small movement to profit. These straddles are available at low rates in the expiry week. In fact you can try this on the expiry day as an expiry day trade. But please be careful – do not buy too many lots. If trying this as expiry day trade, please do not pay too much to trade this. If Nifty closes exactly at the strike where you bought your options; they may expire worthless and you may lose 100% of your investment in the Long Straddle. However this rarely happens. 🙂

3. Knowing the Strike Prices:

In a Long Guts it is very important to know the strike prices which you will buy. You have a problem here. If you go too deep – you will need to pay more. Agreed that max loss will decrease if you go deep into the money but the profit potential will decrease as well. Nifty will have to move significantly to profit. So the best strike prices are those that are slightly in the money.

This means if Nifty is at 8500, you can buy 8400 CE and 8600 PE or 8300 CE and 8700 PE. Maintaining same distance from current spot will make it a neutral non-directional trade. If you are closer to the Call side then it will benefit more if the stock goes up, similarly closer to the Put means it will make money fast if the Stock falls.

Ideally you should go same distance from the spot to select the strikes to keep it neutral.

Going any further than 1 or 2% will almost certainly decrease your chances of making a profit and you may need too much capital to trade. You will feel uncomfortable.

4. Idea of Volatility:

Volatility plays a major role in determining your profit or loss in Long Guts especially if you do not want to wait till expiry. Not waiting till expiry is almost always a good decision because you can always book profits whenever you are making 10 or more points which is 2% of the money blocked.

Who knows on expiry day the long guts will lose its maximum. But if you are OK with the max loss, you can wait till expiry. In my view people waiting till expiry are gambling, not trading. They will make loads of money in 1 trade, and lose it all the very next. And then start from scratch.

Long Guts will make money if there is a movement in one direction and/or Volatility increases. Therefore its very important that you have an idea of Volatility. Usually Volatility increases when there is a big news coming.

You can trade the Long Guts a few days before the news is pending and booking your profits before the news is out. Because if the news is out, Volatility will decrease and both the Call and Put options will lose a lot of their premium.

One example is General Budget. Right now VIX is increasing and I assume it will keep increasing till the Budget is out, end of Feb 2015. After that once the news is out, it will surely shrink.

Another example is when a company is going to declare its quarterly results. You can get in 10-12 days before the results day and get out 1 day before the company announces its results.

Note: Of course if you want to wait till expiry then Volatility is not important. On the expiry day options will have only the intrinsic values. Time and Volatility in the premium will be zero.

5. How to Lock-in Your Profits:

One option will surely increase in value when the Stock moves. Supposing it went down. Now you may feel that people may start buying the stock and it may reverse. So the money you made in the Put option may go. In that case you can either sell the Put option you bought to book profits, or Sell another strike Put option that has increased in value.

For example in our example Nifty was at 8800 when you bought the ITM 9000 PE @ 240 and now Nifty is at 8750, you can sell the 8600 PE at 82 and lock the profits.

Now if Nifty reverses and starts to move up you will lose money from the PE buy, but make money from the PE sell (essentially locking the profits you made from the Put option), and the Call buy. Once you are making reasonable profits from all three trades you can exit.

However please be reminded that this thing is a bit tricky. If Nifty keeps moving down, any more profits coming from the PE buy will be capped and both the PE sell and the CE buy will lose money. So please do your math before taking this step. However it will work wonders if Nifty is range bound. If the newly sold options expires worthless, it will far exceed the losses made from the bought options. 🙂

Therefore you should lock in the profits only when the options have crossed the Break Even points.

Conclusion:

  • Long Guts is a trade where the trader has a Volatile view on the stock.
  • It is played by buying the In The Money Call and Put options.
  • The trader benefits if there is movement in either direction up or down and Volatility also increases.
  • Its better to take profits out before expiry because on expiry day the stock may reverse and finish exactly where it started and the trade may lose its maximum.
  • Long Guts are better than the Long Straddle because the max loss is a lot less, however the profit potential is almost same.
  • However this trade cannot be compounded as too much money is at risk.

If you trade Long Straddle, after reading this article will you start trading the Long Guts? Please let me know in the comments.

{ 11 comments }

Calendar Spread is a slightly complex but an interesting options strategy. When I will discuss it, you will think its a great strategy which will almost always result in profits. But in reality it is not the case. Yes it can make great profits but one needs some skills to excel in this strategy.

It is also called as Neutral Calendar Spread because the traders view is neutral on the market or the stock over the next few days or till the expiry of the sold options. However we will see that volatility also has a major role to play in Calendar Spreads.

When To Trade Calendar Spreads:

When your view is Neutral on the stock but you feel Volatility will increase in future. This means you expect not much movement over the next few days on the stock or the index.

Risk is Limited (But cannot be defined or calculated before the trade is made)

Reward is also Limited (This too is unknown; exact profit is known when the trade is closed)

How To Trade Calendar Spreads:

1) Sell 1 Lot Current Month Option
2) Buy 1 Lot Next Month’s
(or any months option expiring after the options that were sold)

For a true Calendar Spread both options sold and buy should be of the same strike price. If you change the strike prices they are known as Diagonal Calendar Spreads which I will discuss some other day.

Look at the image below. For now keep in mind that Calendar Spreads has a max profit point we discuss later. There is a sag otherwise. The max profit can be attained only on the expiry day.

calendar spreads profit and loss

The trader has to pay money to trade Calendar Spread. This is because the options that are bought are costlier than the options that are sold because the bought options expire later. If you know about Option Greeks, you may know it is because these options have more time value (Theta) therefore they are priced higher.

Now I think you can guess why the trader sells current months options and buys next months options. If not please read the following paragraph to understand this better:

Suppose a trader sells current month’s At The Money (ATM) options expiring in 20 days and buys next months At The Money options expiring in 50 days. Basically his view is this: if the stock remains here for the next 20 days – the ATM option that he sold will expire worthless, but, the options that he bought will still have 30 days time to expire – therefore it should retain a lot of value (though less than what it was 20 days back).

So the profit from the sold options should be more from the loss of theta from the options that were bought. If the profits from the sold options exceeds the losses from the bought options – the trader keeps the difference.

Simple right? No. We will soon know its not that simple. 🙂

I hope why this trade is made is clear. It is to profit from the difference of Theta (time value) of the current month sold options vs. the next months bought options. The current month option will expire before the next month options, and the trader can profit.

This looks like an easy trade. Let me warn you. It is not. It only looks easy.

Why it looks easy is that the trader thinks that if Nifty goes against the sold options, the bought options will increase in value and save him from unlimited losses (true but he still loses money though limited), and of course if it falls the speed of the profit from the current month options will exceed the loss from the bought options (true and false – because it depends a lot on Volatility and movement of the stock).

Interestingly the above would have been true had the option Greeks remained same for the next few days and the stock remains in tight range. Option Greeks especially Volatility plays a major part in deciding what happens to these options; and this is where traders fail. 😉

I will discuss how you can benefit from this as well.

Lets discuss how to trade Calendar Spreads in the best possible way:

1) Sale vs. Buy: There is no need to buy next months options. Yes liquidity is an issue in India, but in the US many traders sell 10-15% up/down current month’s options and buy 10-15% up/down options expiring in say next 6 months. They sometimes do it in both Calls and Puts – thus making it a Double Calendar Spread.

Yes they pay good cash to trade this – but they also get amazing protection. If the stock does not go near the short options – they keep eating the premium for the next 5 months. Which means they keep on selling the next month’s options as soon as the current months expire – same strike. As you can see some months they make good money from the sold call and some month from the put depending on the stocks’ position.

Thus by the time they reach the month in which the options were bought – they may already be in good profit. Now they can just keep these options as an open free trade of long strangle to look for a quick opportunity to make good profit either side. Remember this option has already been paid off and the trader is at zero risk to keep this till expiry. Even if he sells this at break even – he makes good money.

In India this may not be possible now but who knows what may happen in the next few years. The liquidity in options are increasing every month. So right now you have no other option but to buy next months’ options.

2) Time vs. Volatility: This is a very important point. Assuming you sold an option 200 points up in Nifty current month and bought a next month’s option same strike. 30 days are remaining for expiry.

This is your trade (Real prices as on 29-Jan-5015. Example on 4 lots or 100 shares):

Spot Nifty: 8890
India VIX (Volatility): 20.02 (Now that we have a major event next month – Budget 2015 – I assume volatility will keep rising till that day and crunch the next day when the news is out.)

Sell 100 NIFTY FEB 2015 9100 CE @ 112
Buy 100 NIFTY MAR 2015 9100 CE @ 230

Total debit: 230-112 = 118*100 = Rs. 11,800.00

Now lets discuss the best possible situation. On expiry day of sold options (26-Feb-2015) Nifty is at 9090.

The sold option will expire worthless. The trader keeps 112*100 = Rs. 11,200. But depending on the Volatility (repeat that again – depending on the Volatility on that day) the price of NIFTY MAR 2015 9100 CE can be:

a) The same – Volatility has increased so Time value (Theta) did not have much effect on the option plus Nifty also moved up 200 points. Now 9100 is ATM option – when the trade was done it was out of money.

b) More than 230 – Volatility has exploded, increased too much, so much so that it surpassed the option premium eaten by the time value. This is best possible situation for the trader. He profits from both months’ options. Profit from Feb and Profit from March. This is the max profit zone as in the image above. Or,

c) Is less than 230 – most possible scenario. Volatility remained the same or decreased. Depending on the loss on this option the trader makes a profit or a loss. If this option is less than 119 (230-112) on the expiry day the trader will lose money.

There is more to it. We have assumed that Nifty is at 9090 on expiry day just below the sold option strike. But that may not be true. It can be at 8500 or 9500 on that day. And Volatility too is unknown to the trader. We really do not know where Nifty and Volatility will be on expiry day.

Hope you understand now. This is not as easy as it sounds.

How Professionals Play Calendar Spreads?

For them it is more a Volatility play than anything else. For example if they sense Volatility is going to increase for the next few days – they trade the Calendar Spread – mostly on the ATM options. Since Volatility affects ATM options more than any other option – they make quick profit in a few days time and get out of the trade. They do not wait till expiry like an amateur trader looking to profit from the best possible situation on expiry day, that rarely happens. 🙂

3) Can be done on Futures too: Neutral Calendar Spreads can be done on Futures too. We all know that Futures carry a premium. This premium gets to zero on expiry day.

For example Nifty is at 8890; NIFTY FEB 2015 Future is at 8945 and NIFTY MAR 2015 Future is at 9000 (real prices as on 29-Jan-2015). The difference is 9000-8945 = 55 points. If you think on the Feb expiry day this difference will increase you can sell Feb Futures and buy March Futures.

Say on expiry day Nifty is at 8900. Then Feb Future will be at 8900 and lets assume you were right and March Future is at 8970. So your profits from Feb Future: 8945-8900 = 45. Loss from March Future: 8970 -9000 = -30. Difference = 45-30 = 15 Points profit. Or 8970-8900 = 70 – 55 = 15. If the difference is less than 55 points you will lose money.

Of course you can do vice-versa if you think the difference will decrease. Then Buy Feb Futures and Sell March Futures. This is known as Reverse Calendar Spread. It is more common among professionals and institutional investors because full margin is blocked. (We will soon know the margin requirements on Calendar Spreads.)

Reverse Calendar Spread works exactly opposite to Calendar Spreads. If Volatility drops – Reverse Calendar Spreads usually profit. Because profits from the sold options are more than the loss from the bought options.

Just a note on margin requirements on Calendar Spreads. NSE recognizes Calendar Spreads on Futures. You can read in details here.

Here is the abstract from NSE website:

Calendar Spread Margin: Contracts where futures position at one maturity is hedged by an offsetting futures position at a different maturity would be treated as a calendar spread. The calendar spread margin shall be charged in addition to worst-scenario loss of the portfolio.

If done on Futures your broker should block only the maximum loss. For example in the above case its 55 points. Because you lose only if the difference is less than 55 points. Max loss is 55 points (which is very rare).

On options unfortunately NSE does not recognize Calendar Spread as a limited loss strategy therefore full margin will be blocked for selling options. Please ask your broker for more information.

Note: Calendar Spreads are actually traded on points difference only on NSE as a single trade. You need not buy one Future and Sell another. You can just sell the Calendar Spread at 55 points and buy it back whenever it comes in profit or on expiry day.

Margin blocked for one lot will be 55*25 = Rs. 1375 + brokerage. That way even if you make 10 points on this, its a great profit. 25*10 = (250/1375) * 100 = 18.18% return in 30 days or less just on 10 points. But please do not attempt just based on what is written here – if the difference is less than 55 on expiry, you will lose money. Please consult your broker for more details.

A Calendar Spread on Nifty Future is traded like this:

If you think the difference will be less than 55 on FEB expiry. You can sell the Calendar Spread and buy it back for a profit later. Or if you think it will increase you can buy the spread and sell later. In this trade real Futures are NOT bought or sold. Its a bet between two persons. One of them wins other losses. Since there are just two trades you pay less brokerage. However STT is calculated just like its done on a Future trade so that still remains an issue.

Hope I am able to help you understand that Calendar Spreads are more complex than what most of us think about. Its more of a professionals’ trade than a retailers’. If you still want to try please try on one lot only.

Conclusion:

  • Neutral Calendar Spreads are trade where the trader sells current month’s options and buys next months’ options. It is done on same strike.
  • Calendar Spreads are done when the trader thinks Volatility will increase in the near future.
  • Reverse Calendar Spreads behave exactly opposite of Calendar Spreads. This is done by professionals when they think Volatility will decrease.
  • Can be done on Futures. On Nifty Futures the Calendar Spreads are actually traded. You need not sell one Future and Buy another – you can accomplish this in a single trade. Margin blocked will be the max loss or the points being traded at that time.

I am sure many of you have traded Neutral Calendar Spreads. If yes tell me do you wait till expiry or book your profits or losses within a specified time/points?

{ 2 comments }

We will discuss if Technical Analysis – trades based on indicators in stock markets does make money or not.

My view on Technical Analysis / Disclaimer:

I do not have much knowledge in Technical Analysis (TA) neither there is a need to learn because I am very happy with my conservative trading strategies. TA is for people who want to be very aggressive 🙂 – those who want astronomical returns from stock markets. Very few people are able to do it. People like us who are retail traders with a job or business should look for small consistent profits.

Technical Analysis traders take short-term naked directional trades. This is big risk. If you have a job, this gets very difficult as you need to keep an eye on your trades every second. You must be able to quickly take profits or losses as per the indicators. These trades needs 100% of your attention. If your trading account is large and/or you are trading hundreds of lots, you cannot leave your trading table without stop-loss in your system for even 10 minutes.

Traders using Technical Analysis either go for buy or sell mostly using Futures as per the signals of their program. Some of them use options too. Since they love to trade direction, Futures are mostly preferred. Most of these people use some kind of tools/software to help them know the indicators to buy/sell. Some buy it from third parties, some develop their own trading ideas using Technical Analysis software available in the market. But frankly what a human brain can do, software cannot do because they do not have the ability to think.

Technical guys rarely trade next month derivatives. Some quickly get in or get out in few minutes or hours. Some in 2 or 3 days max. Some even develop systems to do automated trading / algorithmic trading.

In automated trading the system takes care of trading. The trader just needs to give information. The rest is taken care of by the system. This has its pros and cons. Human emotions of fear/greed are totally out of the trading system – this is a positive. The negative is that if the system is not fed properly or if there is a bug (server/internet) while trade is on – a lot of problems may occur. Read this $440m mistake of automated high-frequency trading. One mistake in a software can take you down ages never to recover.

Automated or not – the decision the trader takes is the final one that decides profits or loss.

Technical Analysis is meant for small swings in a stock/index and it mostly comes in 2-3 trading sessions. In fact if target is not hit, as far as I know they close the trade as they hate taking long positional trades. 3-5 trading sessions is the most they can wait. Most of them then start looking for new indicators. Why? Because for them time is money and any movement is what they want to capitalize on. Of course this is not possible always.

For example their software my not generate any signal for a day – they will still trade because they think they control the system – and not the other way round. Basically they get bored if they are not trading. My apologies if I am wrong but the new entrants to TA think they are better than normal retail traders. Of course they realize their mistake when they lose a lot of money (and time) trading. 🙂

Only a few go for positional trades. They either make a lot of money from one trade or lose a lot due to un-hedged directional trades. So technical analysis is for people who can take big risks. I am not one of them. This does not mean I am against Technical Analysis – I am only saying you should have a huge appetite for risk if Technical Analysis is what you are looking for to implement in your trades. And yes if you have a job or are into a business you will have a lot of difficulty doing trades based on technical analysis. They need your time.

A few traders may even hedge – but technically its not technical analysis. In my view they are better traders.

Some of the things they learn are: Line Chart, Candlesticks Chart (very popular), Bollinger Bands, Dow Theory, Support & Resistance, Fibonacci Retracements, Japanese Candlesticks, Trend Reversals, RSI, Stochastics, MACD, ADX etc. (Does it not sound like an Engineering Course? 🙂 )

I also think that if Technical Analysis really made huge money (reasonable for a living every month from an average trading account of say 5 lakhs) why would people struggle, pay and work hard for 4 years to study Engineering/Software/Medical/CA/Law etc? They would rather invest a year or two studying Technical Analysis and make money from home. Logical?

Making money from home is always better than taking a job, right? Why not every intelligent person is a TA?

I don’t know but maybe some guys are really good at it and are making a killing using TA. But they must have great methods. The real picture is, for most, Technical Analysis does not make money. And this I am saying after talking to at least 25 traders who are doing Technical Analysis in stock markets. 100% of them lost money using TA.

Social Science Research Network – a research company based in US, did a research on individual traders doing Technical Analysis and found that most traders doing TA lost money. Here is the link:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2401230

If you want to download the research report you can download it here.

Here is the abstract:

We find that individual investors who use technical analysis and trade options frequently make poor portfolio decisions, resulting in dramatically lower returns than other investors. The data on which this claim is based consists of transaction records and matched survey responses of a sample of Dutch discount brokerage clients for the period 2000-2006. Overall, our results indicate that individual investors who report using technical analysis are disproportionately prone to have speculation on short-term stock-market developments as their primary investment objective, hold more concentrated portfolios which they turn over at a higher rate, are less inclined to bet on reversals, choose risk exposures featuring a higher ratio of unsystematic risk to total risk, engage in more options trading, and earn lower returns.

One day I got this email from Mr. Shantanu – an expert in Technical Analysis who is a regular visitor to this website.

Hey Dilip,

Big fan of your website. I am someone who lost a fortune and made a fortune in last 7 years of my trading. I used to bet just like others in the market, got whooped. But today, I can actually claim to be one of the finest technical analysts the world ever saw :). Alright…just a rookie with 4 years exp in chart readings. I love the way you present trading psychology. But the learning we gain from your website on the finer parts of option trading is awesome. Will surely go for your course, not for making money, but to be rich with knowledge 🙂

Regards,
Shantanu

I was very happy to receive this letter as it came from someone actually making money using TA.

So to know the answer I asked Shantanu if he could write about pros and cons of technical analysis and let my readers know if they should invest in Technical Analysis knowledge. I asked him if he could throw some light on this issue and let us know if someone can actually make a decent living out of Technical Analysis. Please read my notes in between too.

Here is Shantanu’s reply:

Yes, we can make a decent amount of money with knowledge of technical as it is also a tool that helps to get out at the right time when the tide turns against you (hence gives Capital Protection). I have always believed that in trading, making money is easy, but not loosing money is an art. Coming to option trading, I never hedge, I know surprising, but true (that’s the confidence and trust TA gives me).

(Note: I told you these guys NEVER hedge 🙂 )

I believe its the language of the markets, it shows the true picture of greed and fear, everyday, every moment. You will be amazed, market is like a woman, and using TA, one can clearly understand when she wants to dance with you, when she wants you to stay away, when it lies…and when it is joking around :)…best part…I have charts to show all her moods 🙂

(Note: Yes charts are what has happened, NOT what is going to happen. Charts are history NOT future. I think more than the Charts these guys are very disciplined. They always take more profits than losses. For example if Charts are showing Nifty will move up and its at 8200; they will take their profits at 8300 – or let the profits run till it lasts, but stop loss at 8150. That way if they are 50% of the times correct they still make money 🙂 . Anyone with TA knowledge please throw some more light on this. If I am wrong please correct me.)

TA or not if you are taking directional trades you should take double the profits than your losses. You will see that you are making money over time – but you have to be right 50% of the time. 🙂

Alright, so some positives and negatives of TA:

Positives:

1- Gives a trader eyes and ears on the behavior of the market.
2 – Helps you understand the most important of trading, Price Action.
3 – Answers you Why, What, and When. Basically tells a trader, What it will do, Why it do, and When it will do it.
4 – Helps cuts down on losses.
5 – Helps people to stay on right side of the trend and allows a trader to let the profits run.
6 – Cuts out emotions and egos from trades.

(Note: 5th and 6th points are most important. They go with the trend until it lasts / or till their indicator’s target price. On the other hand they get wiped out by whipsaws (markets opening gap down/up in opposite direction the next day). Discipline is where they cut out emotions. )

Negatives:

1 – Not a perfect world so at times one can get deceived and take wrong positions (for example, today, most of the folks including me took a bullet).
(Note: Nifty opened gap down more than 1.2%)
2 – Half knowledge or poor knowledge can prove costly. Some people say TA is a smart way to loose money, those monkeys belong to this category.
3 – Can be overwhelming at times, people can get stuck with analysis paralysis and miss opportunities for entries and exit.

(Note:
1 – on that day Nifty gaped down more than 100 points. Gone – 100 points gone in 1 trading session. Now climb the ladder again. This is the major issue with TA.
2 – is a very valid point. If you just read a book on TA and think you are ready to take large bets – I bet you will lose ALL your money. Practice and perfect yourself if you really want to do well in Technical Analysis.
3 – is also very important. These guys like action. They get bored if they are proved wrong or Markets are not behaving the way they want it to behave or just not moving. Like I said they will wait for 3-5 days and start getting jittery if nothing is happening. Then they start looking for new opportunities.)

I have a simple system that I have developed (took me 3 years to make it) that generates signals which are good enough to make a living and take couple of vacations around the globe. My daughter had cancer when she was 6 months old. Treatment drained me of my bank balance, sold everything I had. Trading made me pay the bills, recover my money, and saved my kid.

(Note: If this is true Shantanu you have done a great job. Congrats. Not many people can develop a system that can give true indicator of market movement in short-term. May your kid have a long & healthy life.)

My system is very simple, however, there is a even simpler system that beats them all. Its called “Trendline Break Trading“. If you know how to draw a line, you can make money.

Setup in brief: Draw trendline of current trend (join minimum two points). Wait for prices to break the trendline (up or down) and wait for ADX (Average Directional Index) to confirm the same. That’s it.

My actual system gives more accurate trades as it removes market noise. But the above setup is used by me over any other system (sometimes I use this system even without the ADX, less oscillators the better, trust your eye). Backtest it yourself, over any period, any instrument.

Thanks,
Shantanu

This is the image he sent:

trendline break trading chart

Then I mailed him: Saw your image Shantanu. But it was made AFTER the event was over. How can you predict the future with that?

Shantanu’s reply:

Naah, we are not predicting but following the trend (only on this setup). Entry is on second candle, price should be near to closing of previous candle that broke the trend. So for example if Nifty broke the uptrend and closing price is 8500, our entry for short would be around this price the following day. I will try and send a more clear picture.

Still awaiting Shantanu’s reply. If you are reading this Shantanu please do write more about this in the comments section.

Conclusion:

  • Technical Analysis is trades done for short period of times.
  • TA are directional trades. Mostly done with futures with no hedged trades.
  • Strict profit and loss laws are followed.
  • Trades based on indicators/system/software.
  • Human emotions are not involved.
  • Not everyone can be a good Technical Analyst.

Finer Points:

  • TA or normal speculative trades – the story is same everywhere. Most traders lose money. 🙁
  • The real reason is trading more than the risk they can take, not hedging positions and speculating too much. And every-time they think that this time markets will behave the way they want. This happens once in ten times. This makes them confident and they trade again and lose more than they made.
  • Not taking a stop-loss. Maybe ego or hope being a reason.
  • You may or may not learn technical analysis but you should learn being conservative. Always hedge your positions, know your max loss, take a stop-loss or profits when a target is hit. Learn from your past experiences.
  • If you do the same trade over and over again and expect a different result every time – you will lose money every time. 🙂
  • Trading, as a profession, gets little respect. No one would try to become a doctor or lawyer without any training, but some traders just don’t think any knowledge is important. They speculate and lose a life time of earnings. I hope you are not one of them.

Are you a Technical Analysts? If yes please post over view on TA in the comments. We all will be thankful to you.

{ 12 comments }

In the USA (United States of America) the short call ladder trade is popularly called as Call Backspread Trade. After my article on the short call ladder, I got an email from one of my regular website visitors, Mr. Michael from the US. We exchanged some questions and answers on this trade.

Call Backspread, I assume has a lot of interest to new option traders looking to make unlimited income by paying the least amount of money. We will soon know this is not the case.

Since the discussion was detailed and advanced I have kept this in a different article. This may be of interest to people looking for more information on the Call Backspread trade or the short call ladder.

If you are one of those traders who buy more OTM options and sell less number of near the money options to reduce cost as a single trade, knowingly or unknowingly you are trading the backspread. This discussion maybe of interest to you.

New traders who lost money buying naked options, think Call Backspread is a God send trade, a boon for cheap option buyers. They of course get disappointed.

Please note that the Call Backspread behaves the same way and produces similar results as the Put Backspread or the Short Put Ladder (if you are bearish). Needless to say please draw your own conclusion when you trade the Put Backspread or the Short Put Ladder.

What is a Call Backspread Trade?

In a Call Backspread trade the trader has a bullish view in the stock, but he/she is not willing to risk too much money by just buying costly ATM naked call options which may produce stellar returns if the view is correct. However if wrong, the trader knows he has a lot to lose. In fact the option may expire worthless, and all his money can be lost.

To reduce this risk he sells some in the money (ITM) calls and buys more number of ATM (at the money) or OTM (out of the money) call options. Essentially the trader feels that he will take the ride for free if the stock actually rises. In reality that is not the case.

call backspread profit and loss graph

(In the image above the trader has got a credit to do Call Backspread. See how the stock first has to travel through the loss zone to the profit zone. Only when a rally comes it goes into the profit zone. A trader may not have patience to wait that longer to take the “unlimited profits” lure this trade has.)

Most common trade is to sell 1 Call option and buy 2. Which means the trader sells 1 ITM option and buys 2 ATM/OTM options. This trade can result in a debit or a credit. If the options bought are further out of the money – the trade can be done on a credit.

But DO NOT think that if there is a credit the trader cannot lose money. There is always a trade off in these trades. In this discussion a lot of your doubts on Call Backspread will be cleared.

Lets gets started.

Michael’s email:

I just read through your E-book of the breakdown and discussion of the different options strategies. A fantastic and thorough explanation of the various option strategies.

I wanted to please ask you for your insight into trading Call and Put option “Backspreads” as these seem to be very directional type of strategy.

My thinking is, instead of doing a vertical debit spread, where upside profit is capped and also, buying regular long calls and puts for a directional trade, The Backspread seems ideal for this as:

1. You have the same flexibility in selecting strikes that fit your profit to risk threshold, but you get the added benefit with the Backspread over the Vertical, because your upside isn’t capped and you therefore have “unlimited profit potential”.

2. You can even make a credit, if the Backspread is initiated for one, if the trade goes below the sold Call for example, if doing a Bullish Backspread trade (it basically then becomes a Bear Call trade at that point).

3. You have the option of altering your ratio of bought to sold, depending on just how strongly you feel that the trade will make a big move.

4. On the high dollar priced, as well as volatile stocks like GOOG (Google Inc.), CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.), PCLN (Priceline Group Inc.), ICPT (Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc.), BIIB (Biogen Idec Inc.), SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) – buying the outright calls and puts on these can be quite expensive, especially if buying 60 – 90 days out till expiration.

So by using a Backspread, we are in a sense doing a Vertical spread, of which we can play these higher dollar / more Volatile stocks at a discount.

I know that you are very knowledgeable about the strategies (Backspread) so just wanted to get your opinion on trading them, and if you had any thing specific, that I need to understand before implementing this strategy.

Thanks so much for your time and sharing your knowledge.
I really appreciate it.

P.S: How much and how would I go about purchasing your course please, as I live in the USA?

Thanks Again.

Michael

My reply:

>> 1. You have the same flexibility in selecting strikes that fit your profit to risk threshold, but you get the added benefit with the Backspread over the Vertical, because your upside isn’t capped and you therefore have “unlimited profit potential”.

This is true. But where do you book profits? Be honest when you answer this question. In my view there are a few choices:

a) Leave till expiry. Not good choice for any option trade in the world. A profitable position may get into loss.

b) Set a target. Good but difficult as volatility will be a big player. Plus when the stock is moving up you will get greedy for more. Remember the money is there to take and its unlimited. You may want to ride this as much as possible only to see you got less than you wanted.

You will NEVER be satisfied with whatever you make especially if the stock finishes up further on the expiry day. Still setting a target is a good idea. Buy you should exit once its reached and not look back at the trade.

c) As soon as ATM/OTM bought options becomes ITM. (Not sure if at that time the trade is profitable.) This will be tricky as at that time the trade may be in profit or loss. So even this choice is not good.

That leaves us with (b) – set a target and exit. But this target has to be with losses as well. If you read my article on short call ladder you will see that maximum loss is unbearable. You have to make sure it does not happen. So you have no option but to set a target.

Now tell me what is the difference between this trade and buying less number of naked ATM call options? You can always set a target even when you buy an option and exit for a set profit or a loss. Agreed if the stock falls below the shorted option and if the Call Backspread was done for a credit the trader may make a small profit.

But to create such a trade you will have to buy options far out of the money. For option buyers this is not recommended because realizing a good profit when the stock rallies will get difficult. You may therefore most of the times trade this with a debit. So you lose money even if the stock falls.

Moreover the stock will not fall every time you trade. Therefore to me this is not a better trade than a simple Call Debit Spread. If my view is bullish, I would rather trade a Debit Spread than a Call Backspread for the simple reason that risk in a debit spread is far better than a Call Backspread. Reward may be better in a backspread trade, but for me risk is more important than reward. Call Backspread only looks better on paper – in reality it is not.

Michael:

So would always entering a Backspread trade, be best by entering with 1 sold ITM and buying 3 – 4 OTM, for the sole purpose of being able to take profits once certain targets are hit, and still having the trade covered via having more bought Calls then sold Calls?

I know that by doing so, that we likely wouldn’t receive a credit for putting on the trade (and may be even a small Debit), but by using a 3-4 bought for 1 sold, we give ourselves the opportunity to lock in and take profits, if and when the trade exceeds the upper Breakeven?

My reply:

As long as you are getting a credit – or trading with a small debit – this is OK. But remember doing this with great strike prices may be difficult. You may have to go deep ITM sell and deep OTM buy – not good.

Also you need to calculate max loss – this is the place where the stock expires where all the options bought expires worthless and you also need to pay money to cover the short. This situation will be worse than buying naked call options. This means even if you have a credit, it does not mean you cannot lose money.

Michael:

>> 2. You can even make a credit, if the Backspread is initiated for one, if the trade goes below the sold Call for example, if doing a Bullish Backspread trade (it basically then becomes a Bear Call trade at that point)

My reply:

This is true but you may have to buy deep OTM calls. In that case even if the stock moves in correct direction your target may get difficult to achieve.

Michael:

Great point, and I guess this also gets back to the last question, to be able to buy at a higher ratio of long calls to short ( 3 – 4 : 1 ), we’d likely have to buy further OTM or sell deeper ITM, to cover the extra 1 to 2 Long calls.

Would it then come down to, whether or not we are fine with NOT receiving a credit for initiating the Trade?

My reply:

The problem with such a trade is that the stock has to move significantly for the deep OTM calls to make meaningful gains. Remember that the delta of the short is more than the delta of longs. So one the one hand your short will be loosing money fast, one the other the bought Calls will make money slowly.

However try to trade the best options possible and make sure you are NOT paying a lot of cash to trade this. Small debit is OK.

Michael:

>>It seems that, we would put on a BackSpread trade, if we had a strong conviction, that the stock was going to make a BIG move.

So my thinking is, would it make sense then, to put on more Long calls and thus give up receiving a credit, to allow ourselves the opportunity to have on the extra 1 or 2 long calls, to lock in profits along the way, if/as the trade makes that BIG move we were expecting?

My reply:

Yes true – but how many times will this happen? Do you think every time you expect a big move – the stock will actually move that big? If not your cash will be lost. Over time this will neutralize the results. Sometimes great – sometimes not so great. Consistency will be lacking.

Michael:

>> 3. You have the option of altering your Ratio of bought to sold, depending on just how strongly you feel that the trade will make a Big move.

My reply:

Yes true – keep changing your view and keep losing money when you were too bullish. And make less when you were less bullish. 🙂 Markets won’t behave the way you want them too.

Michael:

>> 4. On the high dollar priced, as well as volatile stocks like GOOG, CMG, PCLN, ICPT, BIIB, SPY buying the outright calls and puts on these can be quite expensive, especially if buying 60 – 90 days out till expiration. So by using a Backspread, we are in a sense doing a Vertical spread, of which we can play these higher dollar or more Volatile stocks at a discount.

My reply:

Options are priced in such a way that doing Backspread for 60-90 days options will surely cost you money. Its not easy to go that far, get great strike prices, and still get a credit.

Michael:

>>So the BackSpread then works like buying a regular Long and Put works. The more time to Expiration, the more expensive the Options.

My reply:

Now at last, Thank God you understood. 🙂

Michael:

>> How many days to Expiration then, do you usually look to go out, as to allow yourself enough time for the trade to make the move you are expecting – 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 days?

My reply:

See in this trade you are mostly long calls. Going very far or short in number of days is NOT important. Your view on the stock and Max loss that you may face is. Please calculate your max loss when trading this. Agreed if you stop out earlier, you will not lose the max loss – but its an important number to know before you trade. This is the reason why you shouldn’t pay a lot to trade this. Small debit is OK. That way if the stock falls, you don’t lose much.

Michael:

>> And does the time to Expiration come into play, depending on what time frame chart you are basing the trade itself on?

For instance, on a 1 Day chart, may be buy 30 – 45 days till Exp.
On a Weekly chart, go with around 60 days till Exp.
On a Monthly chart, 75 – 90 days?

My Reply:

As I said – plan before you trade. See if your Max loss (unfortunately profit cannot be calculated) justifies the trade. If there is a Max loss you are NOT comfortable with – either you should not trade or you should have a stop loss in your system. For profit taking too – you should know how much profit you want from the trade. Unlimited is only on paper, until you take it.

I think in US you can have a stop loss in system which is called Good ‘Til Canceled (GTC). This feature is not here in India. Make best use of GTC. Or monitor your trades closely to take profit/loss out at a predetermined value.

Remember this – you basically want to make unlimited profits, by paying the least. The idea is right, the implementation difficult. My only problem is unlimited profits is on paper. When the stock moves in your direction depending on how many options you bought and sold you may be making less because of the losses in the sold option, and you may want to wait.

Usually this will bring good profits when expiry is near. You may want to wait for expiry and then the stock reverses. 🙂 In panic you may stop out earlier. You cannot time this as the way you think you can.

Another very important point is Backspreads usually makes profit after traveling from the negative zone to the positive. Read this article to know more on this:

http://www.theoptioncourse.com/trade-short-call-ladder/

Michael, Many Thanks for asking some genuine questions on Call Backspread. This will help a lot of traders.

{ 4 comments }

Trading the Short Put Ladder

Short Put Ladder is exactly opposite of Short Call Ladder. In the Short Put Ladder Put options are traded instead of the Call options.

Note: This is the last series on the Ladder trades. A lot of traders whom I have talked to trade the ladder trade without knowing they are actually trading ladders. Most of them sell more and buy less options which means they are trading the Long Ladder unknowingly. Unfortunately most of them are speculating to their comfort and obviously losing money.

It always helps to know what you are trading and why? So if you are one of those who differentiate between the number of lots for buying and selling depending on your view, you are likely to do the same mistake again and again. Because every time you trade you will choose strike prices according to your convenience and not the correct strike for maximizing profits and minimizing losses.

If you differ the number of lots while selling and buying I request you to read all the four types of Ladder trades to help to understand which one to trade according to your view. Please get out as soon as your profit target or stop loss target is met. Hoping for a favorable outcome in every trade is not a good way to trade. Here are the link to the four ladder trades:

1. Long Call Ladder
2. Long Put Ladder
3. Short Call Ladder
4. Short Put Ladder – you are currently reading this.

The view: In a Short Call Ladder a trader was bullish, since they are opposite trades the view should be also opposite. In Short Put Ladder the trader is bearish. However in both the trades the trader’s view on volatility should be bullish.

So when you are bearish on a stock or index and bullish on volatility you can trade a Short Put Ladder. You have to be bullish on volatility because you are buying more options than selling. Volatility helps the buyers.

Risk: Limited
Reward: Unlimited

Construction of the Short Put Ladder Trade:

1. Sell 1 In The Money (ITM) Option
2. Buy 1 At The Money (ATM) Option
3. Buy 1 Out of The Money (OTM) Option

Have a Look at the graph:

short put ladder profit and loss graph

Note: In the above image the trader has got a credit while trading the short put ladder. This may happen rarely, but mostly you will have to pay a debit to trade this. If you get a credit this is a slightly better trade as if all the options expire worthless, you can keep the cash you got while putting this trade. But we don’t trade this to get a credit – we trade this because our view is bearish. However for bearish views there are better trades which I will discuss later. In the example below you will see that I had to pay money to trade this.

As usual let me get real prices from the trading floor.

Date: 30th of December 2014
Spot Nifty: 8248 (Will treat 8200 as ATM)
India VIX: 14.86 (Average)
All options expiring on 29-Jan-2015 (30 days from today) and rounded off.

1. Sell 1 In The Money (ITM) Option: 8300 PE available at 119.00
2. Buy 1 At The Money (ATM) Option: 8200 PE available at 85.00
3. Buy 1 Out of The Money (OTM) Option: 8100 PE available at 60.00

Assuming 100 shares (4 lots of Nifty) were traded in each option.
Lets see whether the trader received a credit or had a debit on the trade:

8300 PE Sold: 119*100 = +11900
8200 PE Buy: 85*100 = -8500
8100 PE Buy: 60*100 = -6000

11900-8500-6000 = -2600

So the trader had to pay Rs. 2600 to trade this Short Put Ladder. Note that this is not his max loss, we will soon see what the max loss is.

Lets see what happens on the expiry day if:

Nifty at 8300:

All options expire worthless. The trader loses the initial investment of Rs. 2600. Note that above 8300 the results will be same.

Loss in percentage of investment: For this trade almost Rs. 60,000 will be blocked. (For real figures please check your broker’s platform). However it should be somewhere near 60,000.

(-2600/60000) * 100 = -4.3%

Nifty at 8200:

8300 PE at 100: Was sold for 119.00. 119-100 = 19*00 = +1900 (Profit)
8200 PE expires worthless: Was bought for 85. 85*100 = -8500 (Loss)
8100 PE expires worthless: Was bought for 60. 60*100 = -6000 (Loss)

Total Loss: 1900-8500-6000 = -12,600

Loss in percentage: (-12600/60000) * 100 = -21%.

This is the max loss in this trade. Are you comfortable with this kind of max loss? At least I am not. I would have taken a stop loss long back.

Very Important Note: Therefore any trades with such a huge max loss must be managed before things go out of hand. I have told this many times and will tell again that hoping something good will happen to your trades in future is NOT the right way to trade. It has more to do with your ego or fear than the stock markets. You must take your stop loss when you are not comfortable owning a trade.

Nifty at 8100:

8300 PE at 200: Was sold for 119.00. 119-200 = -81*100 = -8100 (Loss)
8200 PE at 100: Was bought for 85. 100-85 = 15*100 = +1500 (Profit)
8100 PE expires worthless: Was bought for 60. 60*100 = -6000 (Loss)

Total Loss: -8100+1500-6000 = -12,600

Loss in percentage: (-12600/60000) * 100 = -21%.

Nifty at 8000:

8300 PE at 300: Was sold for 119.00. 119-300 = -181*100 = -18100 (Loss)
8200 PE at 200: Was bought for 85. 200-85 = 115*100 = +11500 (Profit)
8100 PE at 100: Was bought for 60. 100-60 = 40*100 = +4000 (Profit)

Total Loss: -18100+11500+4000 = -2,600

Loss in percentage: (-2600/60000) * 100 = -4.3%

Now we will see some profits.

Nifty at 7900:

8300 PE at 400: Was sold for 119.00. 119-400 = -281*100 = -28100 (Loss)
8200 PE at 300: Was bought for 85. 300-85 = 215*100 = +21500 (Profit)
8100 PE at 200: Was bought for 60. 200-60 = 140*100 = +14000 (Profit)

Total Profit: -28100+21500+14000 = 7,400

Profit in percentage: (7400/60000) * 100 = 12.33%

Nifty at 7800:

8300 PE at 500: Was sold for 119.00. 119-500 = -381*100 = -38100 (Loss)
8200 PE at 400: Was bought for 85. 400-85 = 315*100 = +31500 (Profit)
8100 PE at 300: Was bought for 60. 300-60 = 240*100 = +24000 (Profit)

Total Profit: -38100+31500+24000 = 17,400

Profit in percentage: (17400/60000) * 100 = 29%

For every 100 points drop the trader makes a profit of +10,000.

But look again the trade results – Nifty has to fall from 8248 to 7900 to make some money for the trader. This is fall of 4.2%. How can we predict such a fall? If we can, we can simply buy ATM puts and make great money. 🙂

Real trading is quite different. Look at the graph above. See that the stock has to travel from the negative zone to positive zone to make some profits. In real world your patience will run out and you will take a stop loss much earlier.

Unfortunately what happens after that is of no use to you, as you will have already taken a stop loss when the stock was in the negative region. It of course cannot fly from 8248 to 7900, to just make a profit for you. Theretofore in my view this is not a good trade and should be avoided.

If you have a strong feeling of a market fall you can always buy an ATM put and sell an OTM put (put debit spread) or sell a ATM call and buy OTM call for protection (credit spread).

Fact is most of us cannot predict market direction therefore its very important that you learn conservative trades and be happy with the small returns it provides every month.

The worst part in this trade is that you cannot manage your losses. The only way to do is to take a stop loss. Therefore these kinds of trades must be avoided.

Conclusion:

  • Short Put Ladder: Sell 1 ITM Put, Buy 1 ATM Put, Buy 1 OTM Put.
  • If stock falls significantly the trader makes money.
  • The stock travels from the negative zone to positive zone – in real world the trader loses patience and takes a stop loss – so this trade is best avoided.

    Have you ever tried the Short Put Ladder? If yes I would love to hear your experience in the comments section below.

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