Warning Huge Gap Down Opening in Nifty

by Dilip Shaw Date: October 11, 2018

in Newsletters

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Note: This is text of my newsletter sent to my email subscribers on 11-Oct-2018 before the stock markets opened.

By the time this email reaches you, you will see that the damage has been done to all Future/Call long traders yesterday. I hope it is not you.

Today Nifty will gap down open by almost 300 points. Just see what the damage a gap up or down can do to a naked option or future trader.

This is the loss of a naked (UN-hedged) future trader in SINGLE LOT ONLY:

300 (points) * 75 (lot size) = Rs.22,500/-. Loss of a greedy trader trading 10 lots = Rs.2,25,000/- gone in a single day. 🙁

Yesterday (10-Oct-18) Nifty was in huge bull mode – closed up by 160 points from the previous day (09-Oct-18).

If you are a technical trader or even if not – I am sure you can easily guess that all technical indicators must have given a strong buy signal before yesterdays close. Not a single technical software or technical theories in the world must have given a sell signal indicating a sell off. This is the reason I do not believe much in technical analysis.

Stocks are not a living thing that they will respect or obey technical signals. They will move as per people trade. And its a fact that less than 99.9% of people who buy stocks don’t know technical. Then why technical will work??

Here is some proof – this is not just another blog – it is a research paper:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2401230

Copied from above URL:

We find that individual investors who use technical analysis and trade options frequently make poor portfolio decisions, resulting in dramatically lower returns than other investors. The data on which this claim is based consists of transaction records and matched survey responses of a sample of Dutch discount brokerage clients for the period 2000-2006. Overall, our results indicate that individual investors who report using technical analysis are disproportionately prone to have speculation on short-term stock-market developments as their primary investment objective, hold more concentrated portfolios which they turn over at a higher rate, are less inclined to bet on reversals, choose risk exposures featuring a higher ratio of nonsystematic risk to total risk, engage in more options trading, and earn lower returns.

Conclusion:

If you want to save your money – your hard earned money just hedge your position and go for non-directional trading. Saving your money should be first thing in your mind – making money should be secondary. If you make sure you do not lose your money then it is obvious that over a period of time you will make money trading.

Compare making 25-35% a year which includes small profits and small losses to making 70% a year and losing 80% in 20% of the trades.

Please be realistic on trading and do not believe what telegram channels says or what is shown on YouTube videos that anyone can upload.

How much ever hard you try you cannot make more than 35% a year consistently over the years till you retire. Be happy with that percentage. My courses will help you achieve that without much risk and absolutely ZERO stress.

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About the author: Dilip Shaw I started trading stock markets since 2007. However my first 3 years were losses. Then I dedicated almost 1 year on studying, researching, paper trading options and learned a lot in that time. Since 2011 I am trading Nifty options profitably. Call me if you need any help trading options on 9051143004.

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Warning Huge Gap Down Opening in Nifty

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